Abu Qair Semad
vs
Ghazl El Mehalla
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ghazl El Mehalla
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla
| Probability | Abu Qair Semad | Draw | Ghazl El Mehalla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.1% | 33.6% | 39.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.1% | 33.6% | 39.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ghazl El Mehalla
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla match preview
Abu Qair Semad faces Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Abu Qair Semad has a 27% probability of winning, while Ghazl El Mehalla stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Ghazl El Mehalla, with a 14% chance of occurring. Expected goals are 0.86 for Abu Qair Semad and 1.09 for Ghazl El Mehalla.
In terms of recent form, Abu Qair Semad has struggled, recording six consecutive matches without a win (D-L-L-L-L-L). Conversely, Ghazl El Mehalla has had mixed results, with one win and four losses in their last six matches (W-L-L-L-D-L). The likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 40%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is 31%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla attack and defence ratings
Abu Qair Semad
Ghazl El Mehalla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abu Qair Semad | 27.1% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.8% |
| No | 60.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ghazl El Mehalla win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.5% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 0-1 | 14.1% |
Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla stats
Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla recent form
| Abu Qair Semad |
DLLLLL |
| Ghazl El Mehalla |
WLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Abu Qair Semad and Ghazl El Mehalla season so far
Abu Qair Semad record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They average 0.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ghazl El Mehalla record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.