Asyut Petrol
vs
El Gouna FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Gouna FC
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — El Gouna FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC
| Probability | Asyut Petrol | Draw | El Gouna FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 36.9% | 30.3% |
| Market | 27.1% | 32.9% | 40.0% |
| Final | 28.5% | 33.9% | 37.6% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +1.0% | -2.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 37.6% × 2.40 − 1).
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC match preview
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC face off in the Egypt Premier League with both teams struggling for form. Asyut Petrol's recent results show a mix of one win and four losses, followed by a draw. El Gouna FC has experienced a similar downturn, with five consecutive losses and one draw in their last six matches.
According to our model, the probabilities for the match are Asyut Petrol at 29%, a draw at 34%, and El Gouna FC at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% probability. Expected goals are close, with Asyut Petrol at 0.86 and El Gouna FC at 0.82. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 24%, while both teams to score stands at 34%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.68
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC attack and defence ratings
Asyut Petrol
El Gouna FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Gouna FC | 37.6% | 2.66 | -2.4% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asyut Petrol | 28.5% |
| Draw | 33.9% | |
| El Gouna FC | 37.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.7% |
| No | 66.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Gouna FC win | 10.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 69.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.9% |
| 1-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC stats
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC recent form
| Asyut Petrol |
LWLLLD |
| El Gouna FC |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC season so far
Asyut Petrol record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
El Gouna FC record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.1%, draw 32.9%, away 40.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.31 | 2.80 | 2.24 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 2.80 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 3.22 | 2.80 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.53 | 2.88 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .