Ghazl El Mehalla
vs
Al Ittihad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ittihad
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad
| Probability | Ghazl El Mehalla | Draw | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.2% | 28.0% | 56.8% |
| Market | 31.8% | 36.0% | 32.2% |
| Final | 27.7% | 34.0% | 38.3% |
| Edge | -16.6% | -8.0% | +24.6% |
Why Al Ittihad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Ittihad below the model: +24.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad match preview
Ghazl El Mehalla faces Al Ittihad in the Egypt Premier League on October 21, 2026. According to our model, Ghazl El Mehalla has a 15% chance of winning, while Al Ittihad is favored with a 57% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 16% likelihood. Expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla stand at 0.68, compared to Al Ittihad's 1.53, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form highlights Ghazl El Mehalla's struggles, with five consecutive losses and one draw, while Al Ittihad has shown stronger performance, winning four of their last six matches. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one victory, suggesting a competitive matchup despite the current form disparity. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad attack and defence ratings
Ghazl El Mehalla
Al Ittihad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 38.3% | 2.61 | +24.6% | 3.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 27.7% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Al Ittihad | 38.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.6% |
| No | 60.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.7% |
| 0-2 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad stats
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad recent form
| Ghazl El Mehalla |
LLLDLL |
| Al Ittihad |
WWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad season so far
Ghazl El Mehalla record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
Al Ittihad record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Al Ittihad | Ghazl El Mehalla | Egypt Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Al Ittihad | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-21 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-31 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-30 | Al Ittihad | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-30 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-30 | Al Ittihad | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2021-06-25 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Al Ittihad | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2021-03-09 | Al Ittihad | Ghazl El Mehalla | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 36.0%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.88 | 2.52 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 2.60 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 2.70 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 2.55 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 2.52 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 2.54 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.45 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .