Al Ittihad
vs
El Gouna FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ittihad
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC
| Probability | Al Ittihad | Draw | El Gouna FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 31.6% | 20.4% |
| Market | 41.8% | 34.3% | 23.9% |
| Final | 43.4% | 33.7% | 23.0% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -2.7% | -3.5% |
Why Al Ittihad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Ittihad below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC match preview
Al Ittihad faces El Gouna FC in the Egypt Premier League with kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model gives Al Ittihad a 48% chance of winning, while El Gouna FC has a 20% probability of victory and a 32% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Al Ittihad, with a 16% probability. Expected goals are 1.28 for Al Ittihad and 0.74 for El Gouna FC.
In terms of recent form, Al Ittihad has recorded three wins, one loss, and two draws in their last six matches, while El Gouna FC has struggled, with one win, three losses, and two draws in the same period. Historically, in their last two encounters, Al Ittihad has yet to secure a win, with one draw and one loss to El Gouna FC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC attack and defence ratings
Al Ittihad
El Gouna FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 43.4% | 2.31 | +6.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 43.4% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| El Gouna FC | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC stats
Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC recent form
| Al Ittihad |
WWWLDD |
| El Gouna FC |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | El Gouna FC | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Al Ittihad | El Gouna FC | Egypt Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 34.3%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 2.61 | 3.94 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 2.77 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 2.61 | 3.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 2.71 | 4.15 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.62 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .