Egypt Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC

2 – 1 Full time

8′Mohamed Mido Mostafa
10′Hossam Hassan
41′Tolulope Samuel Ojo
45′Ziad El ShayatOmar El Gazar
60′Mohamed Toni
61′Tolulope Samuel Ojo
66′Mohamed ToniMahmoud Emad
66′Ahmed GamalAlaa Shaaban
66′Abdel Gawad TaalabMarwan Mohsen
66′Joseph ArumalaAhmed Eid Nagy
71′Alpha Turaymarwan essam
75′Hossam HassanJohn Okoye Ebuka
80′Nour AlaaYoussry Wahid
80′Mohamed FakhriAhmed Hamdi
83′Michael EgbembaMohamed Reda

Alexandria Stadium, Alexandria

Al Ittihad 49%
Draw 31%
El Gouna FC 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 1
58 Possession % 42
8 Corners 3
9 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 1
297 Accurate passes 190

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl IttihadDrawEl Gouna FC
Model48.3%31.6%20.1%
Market49.4%30.5%20.1%
Final49.1%30.8%20.1%
Edge-0.3%+0.3%+0.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Al Ittihad

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Ittihad ↓ / El Gouna FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 9% 1 16% 14% 2 11% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC expected goals

Al Ittihad 1.28
El Gouna FC 0.74

Total expected goals: 2.02

Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC attack and defence ratings

Al Ittihad

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.85 -15%

El Gouna FC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC: result vs prediction

Al Ittihad 2 – 1 El Gouna FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Egypt Premier League

Before and after this match

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ittihad 49.1% 2.04 -0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.1% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score No 61.1% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.9% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.7% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Ittihad49.1%
Draw30.8%
El Gouna FC20.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.9%
Under 2.567.1%
Both teams to scoreYes38.9%
No61.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.9%
12 (either side)69.2%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Al Ittihad win23.1%
Push (exactly one goal)25.2%
Loss51.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.8%
0-014.5%
1-113.8%

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC stats

Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC recent form

newest first
Al Ittihad WWWLDD
El Gouna FC LLLDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Al Ittihad record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

El Gouna FC record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Al Ittihad wins 2Draws 6El Gouna FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-04El Gouna FCAl IttihadEgypt Premier League0-0
2025-11-23Al IttihadEl Gouna FCEgypt Premier League0-2
2025-03-11El Gouna FCAl IttihadPremier League2-0
2025-02-17Al IttihadEl Gouna FCPremier League1-0
2024-04-27El Gouna FCAl IttihadPremier League2-1
2023-10-06Al IttihadEl Gouna FCPremier League2-2
2022-05-27El Gouna FCAl IttihadPremier League1-0
2021-11-18Al IttihadEl Gouna FCPremier League1-0
2021-05-25Al IttihadEl Gouna FCPremier League0-1
2021-01-14El Gouna FCAl IttihadPremier League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 30.5%, away 20.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 2.80 5.00
Bet365 1.80 3.00 4.50
BetVictor 1.75 3.00 4.60
Betano 1.93 3.00 4.45
Betfair 1.91 3.00 4.50
Dafabet 1.89 3.00 4.50
Marathonbet 1.80 2.80 4.85
Pinnacle 1.85 2.98 5.66
SBO 2.04 2.70 3.45
William Hill 1.85 2.80 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.85 ▼ -0.45
X 2.99 ▲ +0.37
2 4.55 ▲ +0.95

14 snapshots recorded, from .