Abu Qair Semad
vs
Asyut Petrol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Abu Qair Semad
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
| Probability | Abu Qair Semad | Draw | Asyut Petrol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.0% | 40.8% | 34.2% |
| Market | 44.3% | 32.3% | 23.5% |
| Final | 39.5% | 34.4% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -19.3% | +8.6% | +10.7% |
Why Abu Qair Semad
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 5 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol match preview
Abu Qair Semad faces Asyut Petrol in the Egypt Premier League on October 13, 2026. The model suggests a 39% probability of a win for Abu Qair Semad, while a draw stands at 35% and Asyut Petrol at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Abu Qair Semad, with a 14% chance of occurring. Both teams have struggled recently, with Abu Qair Semad recording four losses followed by one win, while Asyut Petrol has three losses, one draw, and another draw in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Abu Qair Semad is projected at 0.61, while Asyut Petrol has a slightly higher expectation of 0.77. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is relatively low at 16%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 26%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.38
Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol attack and defence ratings
Abu Qair Semad
Asyut Petrol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abu Qair Semad | 39.5% | 2.53 | -19.3% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Abu Qair Semad | 39.5% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Asyut Petrol | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.7% |
| No | 74.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Abu Qair Semad win | 6.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 75.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.4% |
| 0-1 | 18.1% | |
| 1-0 | 14.3% |
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol stats
Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol recent form
| Abu Qair Semad |
LLLLW |
| Asyut Petrol |
LLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 32.3%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 2.77 | 3.96 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 2.95 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 2.77 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 2.87 | 4.05 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .