Smouha SC
vs
Ghazl El Mehalla
Garuda Lions Prediction: Smouha SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
| Probability | Smouha SC | Draw | Ghazl El Mehalla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.6% | 37.6% | 32.8% |
| Market | 41.4% | 35.3% | 23.2% |
| Final | 38.5% | 35.9% | 25.6% |
| Edge | -11.9% | +2.3% | +9.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla match preview
Smouha SC faces Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model indicates a 38% probability of a Smouha SC victory, while a draw stands at 36% and Ghazl El Mehalla at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Smouha SC, with a probability of 14%. Both teams have struggled in recent matches, with Smouha SC recording a W-L-L-D-L-L streak and Ghazl El Mehalla at L-L-D-L-L-W.
In terms of expected goals, Smouha SC is projected to score 0.78, while Ghazl El Mehalla is slightly higher at 0.84. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 22%, and both teams scoring is at 32%. The recent head-to-head record shows one match, resulting in one draw, with neither team having secured a win. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.62
Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla attack and defence ratings
Smouha SC
Ghazl El Mehalla
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- El Mokawloon vs Masr
- Future FC v Enppi — match page
- Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — team news & stats
- National Bank of Egypt v El Geish — match page
- Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol — team news & stats
- Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
- Al Ittihad v El Gouna FC — match page
Before and after this match
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Smouha SC | 38.5% | 2.60 | -11.9% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Smouha SC | 38.5% |
| Draw | 35.9% | |
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.1% |
| No | 67.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Smouha SC win | 9.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 70.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.1% |
| 0-1 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla stats
Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla recent form
| Smouha SC |
WLLDLL |
| Ghazl El Mehalla |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Smouha SC | Egypt Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 35.3%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 2.56 | 3.98 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 2.70 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 2.56 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 2.62 | 4.09 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .