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Egypt Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

1 – 0 Full time

34′P. Badji
45′Pape Badji
46′Mohamed Ragab
46′M. AbdelsalamA. Yasser
46′A. EmadM. Ekbad
61′M. FaroukA. Samadou
61′P. BadjiF. Farid
61′MakaronaG. Chukwudi
63′A. YehiaA. Gomaa
72′M. AshrafR. Arfaoui
76′A. GamalM. Adel
84′Rached Arfaoui
85′K. El GhandourC. Niyigena
85′A. ShikaA. Etman
90′Mohamed Kone

Alexandria Stadium, Alexandria

Smouha SC 37%
Draw 36%
Ghazl El Mehalla 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 1
48 Possession % 52
4 Corners 4
14 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 1
2 Saves 2
333 Accurate passes 353

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySmouha SCDrawGhazl El Mehalla
Model29.5%37.7%32.9%
Market40.1%35.1%24.7%
Final37.5%35.7%26.8%
Edge-2.7%+0.6%+2.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Smouha SC ↓ / Ghazl El Mehal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 21% 15% 1 14% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 79%
2+ goals 49%
3+ goals 22%
No goals 21%

Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla expected goals

Smouha SC 0.78
Ghazl El Mehalla 0.84

Total expected goals: 1.62

Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla attack and defence ratings

Smouha SC

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Ghazl El Mehalla

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla: result vs prediction

Smouha SC 1 – 0 Ghazl El Mehalla

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Egypt Premier League

Before and after this match

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Smouha SC 37.5% 2.67 -2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 77.9% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score No 68.0% 1.47 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.5% 1.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Smouha SC37.5%
Draw35.7%
Ghazl El Mehalla26.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522.1%
Under 2.577.9%
Both teams to scoreYes32.0%
No68.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.2%
12 (either side)64.3%
X2 (draw or away)62.5%
Handicap -1Smouha SC win9.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss70.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-021.1%
0-115.3%
1-114.3%

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla stats

Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla recent form

newest first
Smouha SC WLLDLL
Ghazl El Mehalla LLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Smouha SC and Ghazl El Mehalla going into this match

league record before kick-off

Smouha SC record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Ghazl El Mehalla record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Smouha SC wins 4Draws 3Ghazl El Mehalla wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-27Smouha SCGhazl El MehallaCup3-1
2025-08-16Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SCEgypt Premier League0-0
2025-04-11Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SCPremier League1-0
2024-12-26Smouha SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League2-4
2023-05-02Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SCPremier League0-2
2022-12-30Smouha SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League0-0
2022-07-31Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SCPremier League1-0
2022-02-27Smouha SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League2-0
2021-04-06Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SCPremier League1-1
2020-12-14Smouha SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 35.1%, away 24.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.23 2.47 3.95
Bet365 2.20 2.62 3.50
BetVictor 2.20 2.60 3.60
Betano 2.37 2.62 3.65
Betfair 2.30 2.63 3.80
Dafabet 2.39 2.60 3.60
Marathonbet 2.21 2.47 3.82
Pinnacle 2.38 2.54 4.26
SBO 2.06 2.58 3.36
William Hill 2.40 2.50 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.26 —
X 2.59 —
2 3.67 ▼ -0.25

14 snapshots recorded, from .