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Egypt Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC

0 – 1 Full time

24′Hossam Ashraf
34′Rached Arfaoui
38′Mahmoud El Wensh
45′Rached ArfaouiMoaz Abdel Salam
45′Mohamed AshrafAhmed Etman
45′Hossam AshrafAhmed Sherif
51′Kibou SaïdiAbdel Rahman Emad
61′Abdallah El-SaidAhmed Fatouh
77′Ahmed ShoushaAbdelrahman Rashdan
79′Yehia ZakariaAhmed Gamal
81′Chico BanzaAdam Kaied
81′Oday DabaghNasser Mansi
85′F. Nechat Djabri
88′Ahmed Sherif
89′Ahmed RabieMahmoud Gehad
90′Adam Kaied
90′Motamed Gamal

El-Gazel Stadium, El Mahalla El Kubra

Ghazl El Mehalla 19%
Draw 29%
Zamalek SC 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 3
39 Possession % 61
3 Corners 0
11 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 2
252 Accurate passes 443

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGhazl El MehallaDrawZamalek SC
Model10.8%26.2%63.0%
Market21.2%30.3%48.5%
Final18.6%29.3%52.2%
Edge-10.3%-4.1%+14.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Zamalek SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.49.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Zamalek SC below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ghazl El Mehal ↓ / Zamalek SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 17% 16% 10% 1 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Ghazl El Mehalla and Zamalek SC expected goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 0.49
Zamalek SC 1.81

Total expected goals: 2.30

Ghazl El Mehalla and Zamalek SC attack and defence ratings

Ghazl El Mehalla

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Zamalek SC

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 0.53 -47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC: result vs prediction

Ghazl El Mehalla 0 – 1 Zamalek SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Egypt Premier League

Before and after this match

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zamalek SC 52.2% 1.92 +14.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.9% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score No 66.2% 1.51 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Zamalek SC win 42.3% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ghazl El Mehalla18.6%
Draw29.3%
Zamalek SC52.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.1%
Under 2.563.9%
Both teams to scoreYes33.8%
No66.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.8%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)81.4%
Handicap -1Zamalek SC win42.3%
Push (exactly one goal)26.6%
Loss31.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-118.0%
0-215.3%
0-012.8%

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC stats

Ghazl El Mehalla and Zamalek SC recent form

newest first
Ghazl El Mehalla LDLLWD
Zamalek SC WWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Ghazl El Mehalla wins 1Draws 6Zamalek SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-04Zamalek SCGhazl El MehallaEgypt Premier League1-1
2024-12-02Ghazl El MehallaZamalek SCPremier League0-4
2023-06-27Zamalek SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League2-0
2023-01-24Ghazl El MehallaZamalek SCPremier League2-1
2022-07-16Ghazl El MehallaZamalek SCPremier League0-2
2022-01-22Zamalek SCGhazl El MehallaLeague Cup0-3
2021-12-25Zamalek SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League4-0
2021-08-07Zamalek SCGhazl El MehallaPremier League3-0
2021-02-02Ghazl El MehallaZamalek SCPremier League2-1
2016-05-07Ghazl El MehallaZamalek SCPremier League0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 30.3%, away 48.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.47 2.95 1.84
Bet365 4.33 2.90 1.83
BetVictor 4.10 3.00 1.83
Betano 4.05 3.10 1.95
Betfair 4.20 3.25 1.90
Marathonbet 4.35 2.95 1.82
Pinnacle 4.81 3.14 1.91
SBO 4.22 2.93 1.76
William Hill 4.20 2.90 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.22 ▼ -0.70
X 2.95 ▼ -0.18
2 1.84 ▲ +0.07

14 snapshots recorded, from .