Atletico Balboa
vs
Fuerte San Francisco
1 – 0 Full time
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Probability | Atletico Balboa | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 29.5% | 22.4% |
| Market | 43.0% | 30.2% | 26.8% |
| Final | 44.3% | 30.0% | 25.7% |
| Edge | +5.1% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
Why Atletico Balboa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.90.
- The market prices Atletico Balboa below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Balboa and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Atletico Balboa and Fuerte San Francisco attack and defence ratings
Atletico Balboa
Fuerte San Francisco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco: result vs prediction
Atletico Balboa 1 – 0 Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 44.3% | 2.26 | +5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 44.3% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 25.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Balboa win | 24.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco stats
Atletico Balboa and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
| Atletico Balboa |
WDDLD |
| Fuerte San Francisco |
WDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Atletico Balboa and Fuerte San Francisco going into this match
Atletico Balboa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atletico Balboa vs Fuerte San Francisco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 30.2%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 2.90 | 3.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 2.90 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 2.91 | 3.46 |
| Superbet | 2.15 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| Unibet | 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .