Paide
vs
Nõmme United
4 – 1 Full time
Paide vs Nõmme United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Nõmme United
| Probability | Paide | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 24.3% | 21.0% |
| Market | 63.8% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| Final | 61.5% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -9.0% | +4.5% | +4.6% |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.12.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paide and Nõmme United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Paide and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings
Paide
Nõmme United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Paide vs Nõmme United: result vs prediction
Paide 4 – 1 Nõmme United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paide vs Nõmme United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.5% | 1.63 | -9.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.5% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Nõmme United | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
Paide vs Nõmme United stats
Paide and Nõmme United recent form
| Paide |
DLLWDW |
| Nõmme United |
LLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paide and Nõmme United going into this match
Paide record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-09-14 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 7-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-19 | Nõmme United | Paide | Cup | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paide vs Nõmme United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.8%, draw 19.8%, away 16.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.55 | 6.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.55 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.69 | 5.53 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.49 | 5.51 |
| Superbet | 1.45 | 4.65 | 5.30 |
| Unibet | 1.43 | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .