Vaprus
vs
Flora Tallinn
1 – 2 Full time
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 24.1% | 24.0% |
| Market | 20.1% | 22.0% | 57.9% |
| Final | 28.0% | 22.5% | 49.4% |
| Edge | +31.8% | +2.0% | -33.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Flora Tallinn expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Vaprus and Flora Tallinn attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn: result vs prediction
Vaprus 1 – 2 Flora Tallinn
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 24 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 49.4% | 2.02 | -33.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 28.0% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Flora Tallinn | 49.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 10.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.6% | |
| Loss | 76.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn stats
Vaprus and Flora Tallinn recent form
| Vaprus |
LDLWLW |
| Flora Tallinn |
LLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Flora Tallinn going into this match
Vaprus record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-03-08 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-23 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.1%, draw 22.0%, away 57.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.66 | 4.15 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 4.15 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 4.60 | 4.32 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 4.39 | 3.84 | 1.52 |
| Superbet | 4.35 | 4.10 | 1.62 |
| Unibet | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.57 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .