Kuressaare
vs
Vaprus
2 – 2 Full time
Kuressaare vs Vaprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kuressaare vs Vaprus
| Probability | Kuressaare | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.5% | 27.2% | 30.3% |
| Market | 40.6% | 26.6% | 32.8% |
| Final | 41.1% | 26.7% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +1.9% | +0.6% | -2.5% |
Why Kuressaare
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kuressaare and Vaprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Kuressaare and Vaprus attack and defence ratings
Kuressaare
Vaprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kuressaare vs Vaprus: result vs prediction
Kuressaare 2 – 2 Vaprus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kuressaare vs Vaprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 41.1% | 2.43 | +1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 41.1% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Vaprus | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kuressaare win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Kuressaare vs Vaprus stats
Kuressaare and Vaprus recent form
| Kuressaare |
LWWLDL |
| Vaprus |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kuressaare and Vaprus going into this match
Kuressaare record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs | 9-2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-18 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-07-28 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kuressaare vs Vaprus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 26.6%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.34 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.34 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.51 | 2.99 |
| Superbet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Unibet | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .