Garuda Lions
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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 26

Vaprus vs Nõmme United

1 – 0 Full time

46′I. KrasnovO. Dacosta
51′T. Pajo
59′K. Matas
64′M. Villota
68′K. OostenbrinkN. Vassiljev
68′A. AltebergH. Jarvelaid
74′S. ViidasV. Vallik
78′K. Aloe
81′S. KapperJ. Poder
81′M. VillotaR. Orm
82′M. Limberg
87′T. PajoU. Nomm
90′J. Poder
90′H. Jarvelaid
90′B. ChisalaK. Laanelaid

Parnu Rannastaadion, ParnuReferee: J. Jakobson

Vaprus 46%
Draw 25%
Nõmme United 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Vaprus vs Nõmme United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Nõmme United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVaprusDrawNõmme United
Model61.9%19.9%18.2%
Market40.7%26.1%33.2%
Final46.0%24.6%29.4%
Edge+21.1%-6.2%-15.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Vaprus

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.30.
  • The market prices Vaprus below the model: +21.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vaprus ↓ / Nõmme United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 8% 5% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Vaprus and Nõmme United expected goals

Vaprus 2.45
Nõmme United 1.30

Total expected goals: 3.74

Vaprus and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings

Vaprus

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Nõmme United

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vaprus vs Nõmme United: result vs prediction

Vaprus 1 – 0 Nõmme United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Vaprus vs Nõmme United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vaprus 46.0% 2.17 +21.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.2% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.2% 1.49 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Vaprus win 41.4% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vaprus46.0%
Draw24.6%
Nõmme United29.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.2%
Under 2.527.8%
Both teams to scoreYes67.2%
No32.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.6%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)54.0%
Handicap -1Vaprus win41.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss38.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.2%
1-18.3%
3-17.5%

Vaprus vs Nõmme United stats

Vaprus and Nõmme United recent form

newest first
Vaprus DLLDLW
Nõmme United LLLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vaprus and Nõmme United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vaprus record

  • They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nõmme United record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vaprus vs Nõmme United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Vaprus wins 0Draws 4Nõmme United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-02Nõmme UnitedVaprusCup3-2
2026-05-02VaprusNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga2-3
2026-03-14Nõmme UnitedVaprusMeistriliiga7-1
2025-02-12VaprusNõmme UnitedFriendlies Clubs7-0
2024-10-19Nõmme UnitedVaprusMeistriliiga0-2
2024-07-13VaprusNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga2-0
2024-05-31Nõmme UnitedVaprusMeistriliiga2-1
2024-04-26VaprusNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga2-1
2020-11-25VaprusNõmme UnitedEsiliiga A4-1
2020-08-23Nõmme UnitedVaprusEsiliiga A0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vaprus vs Nõmme United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 26.0%, away 33.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.22 3.45 2.78
Bet365 2.20 3.60 2.70
BetVictor 2.05 3.30 2.45
Betano 2.20 3.50 2.70
Betfair 2.25 3.80 2.55
Dafabet 2.27 3.60 2.75
Marathonbet 2.20 3.45 2.73
Pinnacle 2.27 3.52 2.83
Superbet 2.25 3.50 2.75
Unibet 2.38 3.65 2.45
William Hill 2.25 3.30 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▼ -0.25
X 3.45 ▼ -0.27
2 2.71 ▲ +0.42

9 snapshots recorded, from .