Meistriliiga
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Kalju Nomme
vs
Nõmme United
1 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Z. Beglarishvili | ||
| 30′ | A. Torres | ||
| 33′ | H. Jarvelaid | ||
| 46′ | B. ChisalaM. Miil | ||
| 46′ | T. BaptistaI. Jabir | ||
| 59′ | K. MatasN. Vassiljev | ||
| 61′ | O. MusolitinF. Jekimov | ||
| 65′ | Z. Beglarishvili | ||
| 76′ | N. Ivanov | ||
| 77′ | A. TorresO. Dacosta | ||
| 79′ | H. JarvelaidT. Evans | ||
| 84′ | R. Vukusic | ||
| 84′ | T. Evans | ||
| 85′ | I. Krasnov | ||
| 90′ | N. Ivanov | ||
| 90′ | K. Oostenbrink | ||
| 90′ | G. Purg |
Kalju Nomme
65%
Draw
20%
Nõmme United
15%
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United
| Probability | Kalju Nomme | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.4% | 18.0% | 11.7% |
| Market | 63.2% | 20.2% | 16.6% |
| Final | 65.0% | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| Edge | +7.1% | -2.3% | -4.9% |
Why Kalju Nomme
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kalju Nomme below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United expected goals
Kalju Nomme
2.52
Nõmme United
0.97
Total expected goals: 3.49
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings
Kalju Nomme
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Nõmme United
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United: result vs prediction
Kalju Nomme 1 – 2 Nõmme United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 65.0% | 1.54 | +7.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 65.0% |
| Draw | 19.7% | |
| Nõmme United | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win | 49.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 29.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United stats
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United recent form
| Kalju Nomme |
LLLWWW |
| Nõmme United |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kalju Nomme and Nõmme United going into this match
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
4Kalju Nomme wins
2Draws
0Nõmme United wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Nõmme United | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 7-1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-07-19 | Nõmme United | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-05-28 | Kalju Nomme | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Nõmme United | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kalju Nomme vs Nõmme United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.2%, draw 20.2%, away 16.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.70 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.60 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.71 | 5.79 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.22 | 5.13 |
| Superbet | 1.45 | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| Unibet | 1.48 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.44 ▼ -0.06
X
4.50 ▲ +0.05
2
5.50 ▲ +0.48
9 snapshots recorded, from .