Meistriliiga
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
Trans Narva
vs
Flora Tallinn
2 – 2 Full time
| 15′ | O. Pihela | ||
| 27′ | Y. Betancor | ||
| 33′ | D. Kuraksin | ||
| 43′ | T. Teevali | ||
| 46′ | R. SammulM. Kolobov | ||
| 60′ | D. KuraksinS. Alamaa | ||
| 60′ | T. TeevaliR. Valdmets | ||
| 62′ | I. Antonov | ||
| 66′ | S. ZenjovE. Sorga | ||
| 73′ | T. Berardozzi | ||
| 77′ | I. AntonovT. Usta | ||
| 77′ | S. Agaptsev | ||
| 81′ | R. Alliku | ||
| 82′ | S. AgaptsevA. Besigirskis | ||
| 84′ | G. SleinE. Zuravljov | ||
| 89′ | M. VelijevD. Poliakov | ||
| 89′ | A. GeroN. Baljabkin | ||
| 90′ | E. Zuravljov | ||
| 90′ | W. Awusi |
Trans Narva
21%
Draw
24%
Flora Tallinn
56%
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn
| Probability | Trans Narva | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 26.8% | 48.0% |
| Market | 19.2% | 22.8% | 58.0% |
| Final | 20.7% | 23.8% | 55.5% |
| Edge | +6.0% | +4.0% | -10.0% |
Why Flora Tallinn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn expected goals
Trans Narva
1.14
Flora Tallinn
1.64
Total expected goals: 2.78
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn attack and defence ratings
Trans Narva
Attack
0.58 -42%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Flora Tallinn
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn: result vs prediction
Trans Narva 2 – 2 Flora Tallinn
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 55.5% | 1.80 | -10.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 20.7% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Flora Tallinn | 55.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn stats
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn recent form
| Trans Narva |
LLLDLW |
| Flora Tallinn |
WWLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trans Narva and Flora Tallinn going into this match
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
0Trans Narva wins
3Draws
7Flora Tallinn wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2026-05-05 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 6-0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-17 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-03 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-05-18 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.2%, draw 22.8%, away 58.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.75 | 3.95 | 1.57 |
| 1xBet | 4.81 | 4.05 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.58 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 4.05 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 4.83 | 3.99 | 1.61 |
| SBO | 4.67 | 3.79 | 1.50 |
| Superbet | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.58 |
| Unibet | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.75 ▲ +0.94
X
3.99 ▲ +0.14
2
1.57 ▼ -0.18
9 snapshots recorded, from .