Nõmme United
vs
Flora Tallinn
2 – 3 Full time
| 44′ | I. Krasnov | ||
| 46′ | N. VassiljevA. Torres | ||
| 51′ | S. ZenjovR. Alliku | ||
| 58′ | O. Pihela | ||
| 64′ | K. MatasT. Evans | ||
| 64′ | K. LaanelaidY. Morishige | ||
| 67′ | R. Valdmets | ||
| 67′ | O. PihelaM. Jekimov | ||
| 70′ | Z. Beglarishvili | ||
| 81′ | I. KrasnovB. Chisala | ||
| 85′ | D. KuraksinT. Usta | ||
| 85′ | M. KukkonenA. Jakovenko | ||
| 85′ | D. KuraksinT. Usta | ||
| 89′ | T. Teevali | ||
| 90′ | T. Usta |
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn
| Probability | Nõmme United | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.7% | 25.4% | 39.0% |
| Market | 18.6% | 20.9% | 60.5% |
| Final | 22.8% | 22.0% | 55.1% |
| Edge | +17.1% | +4.5% | -21.6% |
Why Flora Tallinn
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn attack and defence ratings
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn: result vs prediction
Nõmme United 2 – 3 Flora Tallinn
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 55.1% | 1.81 | -21.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 22.8% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Flora Tallinn | 55.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn stats
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn recent form
| Nõmme United |
WLLLLL |
| Flora Tallinn |
DWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn going into this match
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Flora Tallinn | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nõmme United | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Flora Tallinn | Nõmme United | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Flora Tallinn | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Nõmme United | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-08-18 | Flora Tallinn | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-06-29 | Nõmme United | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-01 | Flora Tallinn | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nõmme United vs Flora Tallinn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 22.0%, away 59.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.11 | 4.30 | 1.49 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.48 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 4.05 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.95 | 4.30 | 1.48 |
| Pinnacle | 4.88 | 4.35 | 1.55 |
| SBO | 4.46 | 4.04 | 1.48 |
| Superbet | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Unibet | 3.80 | 4.10 | 1.68 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .