Flora Tallinn
vs
Vaprus
3 – 2 Full time
| 55′ | M. Limberg | ||
| 60′ | E. Sorga | ||
| 60′ | D. KuraksinR. Alliku | ||
| 60′ | M. KukkonenD. Zotov | ||
| 62′ | E. Sorga | ||
| 75′ | S. Kapper | ||
| 76′ | S. KapperV. Vallik | ||
| 76′ | S. ViidasJ. Poder | ||
| 80′ | E. SorgaT. Usta | ||
| 86′ | M. VillotaR. Orm | ||
| 90′ | K. AloeU. Nomm | ||
| 90′ | S. Alamaa |
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus
| Probability | Flora Tallinn | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Market | 62.5% | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| Final | 60.4% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| Edge | -8.0% | +2.3% | +5.7% |
Why Flora Tallinn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus attack and defence ratings
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus: result vs prediction
Flora Tallinn 3 – 2 Vaprus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 60.4% | 1.65 | -8.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 60.4% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Vaprus | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus stats
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus recent form
| Flora Tallinn |
WDWWLL |
| Vaprus |
LLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flora Tallinn and Vaprus going into this match
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-03-08 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Flora Tallinn | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-23 | Vaprus | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flora Tallinn vs Vaprus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 20.2%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 5.89 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.50 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.78 | 5.77 |
| SBO | 1.41 | 4.26 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .