Garuda Lions
Today
Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 29

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn

1 – 1 Full time

5′Wendell
32′Alexandre
46′AlexandreJoao Pedro
53′V. Iboro
58′A. Gero
60′M. Velijev
61′Trans Narva
62′M. RoosnuppE. Otoo
62′N. KutateladzeM. Bessala
74′S. AgaptsevA. Besigirskis
74′W. AwusiE. Zuravljov
79′WendellG. Reis
83′A. GeroN. Baljabkin
83′G. SleinS. Kondrattsev
90′M. Bessala

Narva Kalev-Fama staadion, NarvaReferee: K. Tohver

Trans Narva 8%
Draw 13%
FC Levadia Tallinn 79%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTrans NarvaDrawFC Levadia Tallinn
Model3.0%9.0%88.0%
Market9.3%15.0%75.8%
Final7.7%13.5%78.8%
Edge-6.3%-6.0%+12.3%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Levadia Tallinn

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.31 vs 0.56.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below the model: +12.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Trans Narva ↓ / FC Levadia Tal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 24% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 2%

Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals

Trans Narva 0.56
FC Levadia Tallinn 3.31

Total expected goals: 3.87

Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn attack and defence ratings

Trans Narva

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.24 +24%

FC Levadia Tallinn

Attack 1.90 +90%
Defence 0.52 -48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn: result vs prediction

Trans Narva 1 – 1 FC Levadia Tallinn

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Levadia Tallinn 78.8% 1.27 +12.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.1% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score No 58.3% 1.71 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 92.3% 1.08 — —
Handicap -1 FC Levadia Tallinn win 72.9% 1.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Trans Narva7.7%
Draw13.5%
FC Levadia Tallinn78.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%
Both teams to scoreYes41.7%
No58.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)21.2%
12 (either side)86.5%
X2 (draw or away)92.3%
Handicap -1FC Levadia Tallinn win72.9%
Push (exactly one goal)15.2%
Loss11.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-312.6%
0-211.5%
0-410.4%

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn stats

Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form

newest first
Trans Narva LDLLLD
FC Levadia Tallinn WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Trans Narva and FC Levadia Tallinn going into this match

league record before kick-off

Trans Narva record

  • They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 28 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Levadia Tallinn record

  • They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Trans Narva wins 1Draws 8FC Levadia Tallinn wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-21FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaMeistriliiga4-0
2026-07-04Trans NarvaFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga1-3
2026-04-26FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaMeistriliiga7-0
2026-01-31FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaFriendlies Clubs0-0
2025-11-02Trans NarvaFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-4
2025-08-29FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaMeistriliiga3-1
2025-06-27FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaMeistriliiga2-1
2025-05-14FC Levadia TallinnTrans NarvaCup1-0
2025-04-05Trans NarvaFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-1
2025-01-22Trans NarvaFC Levadia TallinnFriendlies Clubs3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 9.3%, draw 15.0%, away 75.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 11.00 6.20 1.17
Bet365 9.50 6.25 1.25
Betano 8.75 5.30 1.24
Betfair 10.00 6.00 1.18
Marathonbet 10.50 6.20 1.16
Pinnacle 9.68 6.68 1.21
SBO 7.62 5.13 1.22
William Hill 10.00 5.80 1.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 9.84 ▼ -5.16
X 6.10 ▼ -1.30
2 1.21 ▲ +0.10

9 snapshots recorded, from .