Vaprus
vs
Trans Narva
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vaprus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Vaprus vs Trans Narva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Trans Narva
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 25.4% | 22.2% |
| Market | 37.1% | 27.1% | 35.8% |
| Final | 40.9% | 26.7% | 32.4% |
| Edge | +15.3% | -1.8% | -13.6% |
Why Vaprus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vaprus below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva match preview
Vaprus faces Trans Narva in the Meistriliiga with a kickoff set for October 10, 2026. The model gives Vaprus a 52% chance of winning, while Trans Narva has a 22% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 25%. The expected goals for Vaprus is 1.79, compared to Trans Narva's 1.10, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Vaprus, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Vaprus has recorded a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Trans Narva has struggled significantly, with six consecutive matches yielding only one draw. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Vaprus has secured one win, while Trans Narva has achieved four victories, highlighting a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Trans Narva expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Vaprus and Trans Narva attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Trans Narva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 40.9% | 2.44 | +15.3% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 40.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Trans Narva | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vaprus win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Vaprus vs Trans Narva stats
Vaprus and Trans Narva recent form
| Vaprus |
LLLWWD |
| Trans Narva |
DLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Trans Narva season so far
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 4-2 |
| 2025-04-23 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-04 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.1%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.28 | 2.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.28 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.28 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .