Vaprus
vs
Trans Narva
2 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | N. Baljabkin | ||
| 32′ | N. Baljabkin | ||
| 38′ | K. Aloe | ||
| 39′ | S. Kapper | ||
| 51′ | A. Filatov | ||
| 65′ | S. Kapper | ||
| 70′ | G. SleinE. Zuravljov | ||
| 70′ | N. BaljabkinA. Besigirskis | ||
| 73′ | S. ViidasV. Vallik | ||
| 79′ | Y. BetancorJ. Doke | ||
| 79′ | S. AgaptsevElysee | ||
| 82′ | M. VillotaR. Orm | ||
| 82′ | U. NommM. Villota | ||
| 85′ | W. AwusiD. Poliakov | ||
| 90′ | T. Pajo |
Vaprus vs Trans Narva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Trans Narva
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 25.4% | 22.2% |
| Market | 37.0% | 26.8% | 36.2% |
| Final | 40.9% | 26.4% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -0.3% | -3.5% |
Why Vaprus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vaprus below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Trans Narva expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Vaprus and Trans Narva attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva: result vs prediction
Vaprus 2 – 2 Trans Narva
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Trans Narva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 40.9% | 2.45 | +3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 40.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Trans Narva | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vaprus win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Vaprus vs Trans Narva stats
Vaprus and Trans Narva recent form
| Vaprus |
LLLWWD |
| Trans Narva |
DLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Trans Narva going into this match
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 4-2 |
| 2025-04-23 | Vaprus | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-04 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Trans Narva | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Trans Narva odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 26.8%, away 36.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.34 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.34 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.44 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 3.18 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .