Kuressaare
vs
Flora Tallinn
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flora Tallinn
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
| Probability | Kuressaare | Draw | Flora Tallinn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 25.3% | 39.7% |
| Market | 18.1% | 21.6% | 60.3% |
| Final | 22.3% | 22.5% | 55.2% |
| Edge | +17.0% | +3.7% | -20.7% |
Why Flora Tallinn
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn match preview
Kuressaare faces Flora Tallinn in this Meistriliiga clash, with the probabilities favoring the visitors at 56% compared to Kuressaare's 22%, while a draw stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams show a tendency for high-scoring matches, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form indicates a struggle for Kuressaare, who have recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Flora Tallinn has been more successful, winning four of their last six. In their last seven encounters, Flora Tallinn has dominated with six victories against Kuressaare's single win, further solidifying their status as favorites in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn attack and defence ratings
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 55.2% | 1.81 | -20.7% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 22.3% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Flora Tallinn | 55.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn stats
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn recent form
| Kuressaare |
DLLWDL |
| Flora Tallinn |
WWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn season so far
Kuressaare record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Flora Tallinn | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kuressaare | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-07 | Flora Tallinn | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Flora Tallinn | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Kuressaare | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-27 | Kuressaare | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-29 | Flora Tallinn | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.1%, draw 21.6%, away 60.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| Betano | 4.75 | 4.15 | 1.52 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 5.02 | 4.40 | 1.53 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .