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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 31

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn

1 – 3 Full time

10′N. Kutateladze
13′E. Sorga
20′M. Ainsalu
54′Joao Pedro
58′S. Tovstik
65′R. Valdmets
66′G. ReisE. Otoo
71′D. KuraksinI. Antonov
71′T. VarjundR. Alliku
72′F. Liivak
79′R. ValdmetsM. Kalimullin
81′N. KutateladzeR. Kirss
81′M. SkvortsovG. Lehtmets
81′Joao PedroAlexandre
82′S. TovstikT. Usta
87′M. Roosnupp

A. Le Coq Arena, TallinnReferee: K. Koppel

Flora Tallinn 15%
Draw 19%
FC Levadia Tallinn 66%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlora TallinnDrawFC Levadia Tallinn
Model9.3%16.2%74.5%
Market17.1%20.3%62.6%
Final15.1%19.3%65.6%
Edge-2.0%-1.0%+3.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Levadia Tallinn

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Flora Tallinn ↓ / FC Levadia Tal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 9% 12% 1 7% 9% 8% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals

Flora Tallinn 0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn 2.66

Total expected goals: 3.54

Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn attack and defence ratings

Flora Tallinn

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.16 +16%

FC Levadia Tallinn

Attack 1.66 +66%
Defence 0.49 -51%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn: result vs prediction

Flora Tallinn 1 – 3 FC Levadia Tallinn

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Levadia Tallinn 65.6% 1.52 +3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.6% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.9% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 FC Levadia Tallinn win 54.2% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Flora Tallinn15.1%
Draw19.3%
FC Levadia Tallinn65.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%
Both teams to scoreYes55.0%
No45.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)34.4%
12 (either side)80.7%
X2 (draw or away)84.9%
Handicap -1FC Levadia Tallinn win54.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss25.5%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.3%
0-39.1%
1-29.0%

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn stats

Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form

newest first
Flora Tallinn LWWDWW
FC Levadia Tallinn WDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Flora Tallinn and FC Levadia Tallinn going into this match

league record before kick-off

Flora Tallinn record

  • They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

FC Levadia Tallinn record

  • They have won 23 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Flora Tallinn wins 1Draws 4FC Levadia Tallinn wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-28FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnMeistriliiga1-2
2026-06-13Flora TallinnFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga1-3
2026-04-19FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnMeistriliiga4-0
2026-02-14Flora TallinnFC Levadia TallinnFriendlies Clubs1-0
2025-10-29Flora TallinnFC Levadia TallinnCup3-1
2025-09-24Flora TallinnFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga2-3
2025-09-17FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnMeistriliiga1-3
2025-05-18Flora TallinnFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga1-0
2025-04-12FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnMeistriliiga0-0
2024-11-03FC Levadia TallinnFlora TallinnMeistriliiga4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.1%, draw 20.3%, away 62.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.57 4.50 1.42
Bet365 5.25 4.33 1.44
BetVictor 4.75 3.90 1.36
Betano 4.80 4.25 1.50
Betfair 5.50 4.60 1.40
Dafabet 5.20 4.60 1.49
Marathonbet 5.35 4.50 1.41
Pinnacle 5.50 4.84 1.45
SBO 5.22 4.30 1.38
William Hill 5.00 4.33 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.23 ▲ +0.43
X 4.42 ▲ +0.12
2 1.43 ▼ -0.11

7 snapshots recorded, from .