FC Levadia Tallinn
vs
Paide
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide
| Probability | FC Levadia Tallinn | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.4% | 16.3% | 8.3% |
| Market | 63.9% | 21.4% | 14.7% |
| Final | 66.8% | 20.1% | 13.1% |
| Edge | +11.4% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
Why FC Levadia Tallinn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide match preview
FC Levadia Tallinn faces Paide in the Meistriliiga on October 11, 2026. FC Levadia Tallinn holds a strong probability of 69% to win, while Paide has a 13% chance, and the likelihood of a draw stands at 18%. The expected goals for FC Levadia Tallinn is 2.57 compared to Paide's 0.78, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, FC Levadia Tallinn has been performing well, with a streak of six matches without a loss, including four consecutive wins. Paide, on the other hand, has seen mixed results, winning three of their last six matches but losing two. Historically, in their last ten encounters, FC Levadia Tallinn has secured six victories against Paide's three wins, further emphasizing their dominance in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide attack and defence ratings
FC Levadia Tallinn
Paide
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 66.8% | 1.50 | +11.4% | 1.46 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 66.8% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Paide | 13.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win | 54.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 24.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.6% |
| 3-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide stats
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide recent form
| FC Levadia Tallinn |
DWWWWW |
| Paide |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide season so far
FC Levadia Tallinn record
- They have won 22 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Paide record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2026-08-26 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Paide | Cup | 4-1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-22 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-07-04 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-09 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-29 | Paide | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.9%, draw 21.4%, away 14.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 3.98 | 6.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 3.98 | 6.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 3.74 | 7.94 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .