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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 30

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide

1 – 0 Full time

3′R. Smirnov
6′F. Liivak
23′Wendell
31′J. Saliste
36′M. Jobarteh
46′M. JobartehJ. Palacios
46′R. SmirnovO. Hoim
46′D. DarboeK. Piht
52′V. Iboro
66′N. KutateladzeM. Roosnupp
66′M. SkvortsovG. Reis
71′D. LutsS. Luts
73′AlexandreT. Tammik
73′A. NwankwoE. Otoo
77′T. Tammik
80′K. Piht
81′M. MillerA. Surogin
89′G. Reis
90′WendellR. Kirss

A. Le Coq Arena, TallinnReferee: R. Maalinn

FC Levadia Tallinn 67%
Draw 20%
Paide 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC Levadia TallinnDrawPaide
Model75.5%16.3%8.3%
Market63.9%20.9%15.2%
Final66.8%19.8%13.4%
Edge+2.9%-1.2%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Levadia Tallinn

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Levadia Tal ↓ / Paide → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 12% 9% 3 10% 8% 4+ 12% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide expected goals

FC Levadia Tallinn 2.58
Paide 0.77

Total expected goals: 3.35

FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide attack and defence ratings

FC Levadia Tallinn

Attack 1.78 +78%
Defence 0.53 -47%

Paide

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide: result vs prediction

FC Levadia Tallinn 1 – 0 Paide

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Levadia Tallinn 66.8% 1.50 +2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.0% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.6% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 FC Levadia Tallinn win 54.6% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Levadia Tallinn66.8%
Draw19.8%
Paide13.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.6%
12 (either side)80.2%
X2 (draw or away)33.2%
Handicap -1FC Levadia Tallinn win54.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss24.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.6%
3-010.0%
2-19.0%

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide stats

FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide recent form

newest first
FC Levadia Tallinn DWWWWW
Paide WWLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn record

  • They have won 22 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Paide record

  • They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6FC Levadia Tallinn wins 1Draws 3Paide wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-06PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-2
2026-08-26FC Levadia TallinnPaideCup4-1
2026-05-17PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga1-3
2026-03-22FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga2-2
2025-10-22FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-2
2025-07-04PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-3
2025-05-11FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga2-1
2025-04-23PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga2-1
2024-11-09PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga3-0
2024-05-29PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.9%, draw 20.9%, away 15.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.40 4.05 6.88
Bet365 1.42 4.50 5.75
BetVictor 1.33 4.00 5.00
Betano 1.40 4.30 6.10
Betfair 1.36 4.60 6.00
Dafabet 1.45 4.50 5.80
Marathonbet 1.39 4.05 6.55
Pinnacle 1.46 3.94 7.12
SBO 1.37 4.24 4.94
William Hill 1.40 4.75 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▲ +0.02
X 4.27 ▼ -0.53
2 5.90 ▼ -0.40

15 snapshots recorded, from .