Tammeka
vs
Nõmme United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tammeka
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Tammeka vs Nõmme United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tammeka vs Nõmme United
| Probability | Tammeka | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 22.6% | 25.6% |
| Market | 45.7% | 24.2% | 30.1% |
| Final | 47.2% | 23.8% | 29.0% |
| Edge | +6.1% | -1.6% | -4.5% |
Why Tammeka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tammeka below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United match preview
Tammeka is set to face Nõmme United in the Meistriliiga on October 10, 2026. The model suggests a 52% probability of a Tammeka win, with a 23% chance of a draw and a 26% likelihood of a Nõmme United victory. The expected goals for Tammeka stand at 2.12, while Nõmme United is projected to score 1.46. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form indicates that Tammeka has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Nõmme United has struggled with one win and five losses. In their last three encounters, Tammeka has secured all three victories against Nõmme United, highlighting a strong head-to-head record. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tammeka and Nõmme United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Tammeka and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings
Tammeka
Nõmme United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tammeka vs Nõmme United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 47.2% | 2.12 | +6.1% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 47.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Nõmme United | 29.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Tammeka vs Nõmme United stats
Tammeka and Nõmme United recent form
| Tammeka |
LLWLWL |
| Nõmme United |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tammeka and Nõmme United season so far
Tammeka record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Nõmme United | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tammeka | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Nõmme United | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-01-31 | Nõmme United | Tammeka | Friendlies Clubs | 0-6 |
| 2024-11-09 | Nõmme United | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | Tammeka | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-04 | Tammeka | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-05 | Nõmme United | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tammeka vs Nõmme United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 24.2%, away 30.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.72 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.72 | 2.97 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .