Nõmme United
vs
Paide
1 – 3 Full time
| 20′ | M. Miller | ||
| 43′ | H. AnierK. Piht | ||
| 46′ | M. MiilA. Truuvaart | ||
| 56′ | N. VassiljevI. Krasnov | ||
| 59′ | I. Krasnov | ||
| 66′ | T. EvansK. Matas | ||
| 67′ | K. KaitH. Ojamaa | ||
| 67′ | Daniel CabralH. Ojamaa | ||
| 69′ | Z. Beglarishvili | ||
| 74′ | H. Ojamaa | ||
| 77′ | D. LutsS. Luts | ||
| 81′ | J. Palacios | ||
| 86′ | Z. BeglarishviliE. Ounapuu | ||
| 86′ | A. TorresO. Dacosta | ||
| 90′ | Paide | ||
| 90′ | M. Palts |
Nõmme United vs Paide overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nõmme United vs Paide
| Probability | Nõmme United | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 26.1% | 47.6% |
| Market | 20.3% | 21.3% | 58.4% |
| Final | 21.8% | 22.5% | 55.7% |
| Edge | +6.0% | +4.7% | -10.7% |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nõmme United and Paide expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
Nõmme United and Paide attack and defence ratings
Nõmme United
Paide
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nõmme United vs Paide: result vs prediction
Nõmme United 1 – 3 Paide
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nõmme United vs Paide markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 55.7% | 1.80 | -10.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 21.8% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Paide | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
Nõmme United vs Paide stats
Nõmme United and Paide recent form
| Nõmme United |
LWLLLL |
| Paide |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nõmme United and Paide going into this match
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United vs Paide head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 4-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-09-14 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 7-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Nõmme United | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Paide | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-19 | Nõmme United | Paide | Cup | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nõmme United vs Paide odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.3%, draw 21.3%, away 58.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.58 | 4.20 | 1.54 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 4.05 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.52 |
| Pinnacle | 4.49 | 4.46 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .