Paide
vs
Vaprus
2 – 0 Full time
| 4′ | J. Palacios | ||
| 12′ | H. Valja | ||
| 22′ | M. P. Sohna | ||
| 45′ | M. Lipp | ||
| 53′ | Daniel CabralR. Smirnov | ||
| 55′ | I. Prins | ||
| 77′ | J. PoderV. Vallik | ||
| 77′ | S. ViidasR. Orm | ||
| 77′ | M. VillotaS. Kapper | ||
| 78′ | S. LutsH. Ojamaa | ||
| 78′ | K. PihtD. Luts | ||
| 84′ | M. LilanderH. Ojamaa | ||
| 84′ | E. TurK. Kait | ||
| 90′ | J. Palacios |
Paide vs Vaprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Vaprus
| Probability | Paide | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 23.4% | 21.3% |
| Market | 63.2% | 20.6% | 16.2% |
| Final | 61.2% | 21.3% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -7.9% | +2.8% | +5.1% |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paide and Vaprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Paide and Vaprus attack and defence ratings
Paide
Vaprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Paide vs Vaprus: result vs prediction
Paide 2 – 0 Vaprus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paide vs Vaprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.2% | 1.63 | -7.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Vaprus | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Paide vs Vaprus stats
Paide and Vaprus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paide and Vaprus going into this match
Paide record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Paide | Vaprus | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-09 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-23 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-06-18 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paide vs Vaprus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.2%, draw 20.6%, away 16.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.40 | 5.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.40 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.65 | 5.62 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .