Laagri
vs
Nõmme United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Laagri
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Laagri vs Nõmme United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Laagri vs Nõmme United
| Probability | Laagri | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 22.7% | 18.6% |
| Market | 41.1% | 23.9% | 35.0% |
| Final | 45.5% | 23.6% | 30.9% |
| Edge | +17.6% | -1.2% | -16.4% |
Why Laagri
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Laagri below the model: +17.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Laagri vs Nõmme United match preview
Laagri is set to face Nõmme United in the Meistriliiga on October 13, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Laagri winning, with a 59% probability compared to Nõmme United's 19%. The expected goals suggest Laagri is projected to score 2.07, while Nõmme United is expected to net 1.10. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
Recent form shows Laagri with mixed results, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Nõmme United has struggled, losing four of their last five games. Historically, Laagri has the upper hand in their last nine encounters, winning five times against Nõmme United's four victories. The probabilities indicate a competitive match, but Laagri appears favored.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Laagri and Nõmme United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Laagri and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings
Laagri
Nõmme United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Laagri vs Nõmme United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laagri | 45.5% | 2.20 | +17.6% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laagri | 45.5% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Nõmme United | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% |
| No | 40.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Laagri win | 36.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Laagri vs Nõmme United stats
Laagri and Nõmme United recent form
| Laagri |
DWLLWW |
| Nõmme United |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Laagri and Nõmme United season so far
Laagri record
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Laagri vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Nõmme United | Laagri | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laagri | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nõmme United | Laagri | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-30 | Laagri | Nõmme United | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-14 | Laagri | Nõmme United | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-22 | Laagri | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A | 5-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Nõmme United | Laagri | Esiliiga A | 4-1 |
| 2022-04-28 | Laagri | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A | 4-2 |
| 2022-04-10 | Nõmme United | Laagri | Esiliiga A | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Laagri vs Nõmme United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 23.9%, away 35.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.80 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .