Trans Narva
vs
Kuressaare
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kuressaare
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trans Narva vs Kuressaare
| Probability | Trans Narva | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.4% | 29.8% | 36.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.4% | 29.8% | 36.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kuressaare
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare match preview
Trans Narva faces Kuressaare in an upcoming Meistriliiga match, with kickoff scheduled for October 14, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for this fixture are 33% for a Trans Narva win, 30% for a draw, and 37% for a Kuressaare victory. The expected goals for Trans Narva stand at 1.20, while Kuressaare is slightly higher at 1.27. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a probability of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Trans Narva has struggled, recording a series of draws and losses, with their latest results being D-L-D-L-L-L. Conversely, Kuressaare's recent performances include a mix of draws and losses, alongside one win. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Trans Narva has secured 1 win, while Kuressaare has achieved 5 wins and there have been 4 draws. The probability of both teams scoring is 52%, and there is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trans Narva and Kuressaare expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Trans Narva and Kuressaare attack and defence ratings
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 36.8% | 2.72 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 33.4% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Kuressaare | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kuressaare win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare stats
Trans Narva and Kuressaare recent form
| Trans Narva |
DLDLLL |
| Kuressaare |
DLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trans Narva and Kuressaare season so far
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kuressaare | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kuressaare | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Trans Narva | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kuressaare | Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Kuressaare | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Trans Narva | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Kuressaare | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Trans Narva | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Trans Narva | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-09 | Trans Narva | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.