Meistriliiga
·
Full time
·Matchday 32
Paide
vs
Trans Narva
2 – 1 Full time
| 18′ | J. Palacios | ||
| 25′ | R. Smirnov | ||
| 38′ | M. Velijev | ||
| 38′ | E. Zuravljov | ||
| 46′ | J. PalaciosM. Jobarteh | ||
| 47′ | W. Awusi | ||
| 65′ | D. DarboeS. Luts | ||
| 68′ | D. Luts | ||
| 74′ | N. BaljabkinG. Slein | ||
| 77′ | M. Velijev | ||
| 79′ | M. VelijevA. Ivanyushin | ||
| 79′ | A. GeroY. Betancor | ||
| 79′ | R. SmirnovA. Surogin | ||
| 87′ | S. AgaptsevA. Besigirskis | ||
| 87′ | E. ZuravljovK. Miranda da Silva | ||
| 88′ | Daniel CabralP. A. Cham |
Paide
62%
Draw
22%
Trans Narva
16%
Paide vs Trans Narva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Trans Narva
| Probability | Paide | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 22.7% | 11.7% |
| Market | 60.6% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| Final | 61.8% | 22.1% | 16.0% |
| Edge | +5.1% | +0.7% | -5.8% |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paide below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
8%
Paide and Trans Narva expected goals
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
0.70
Total expected goals: 2.64
Paide and Trans Narva attack and defence ratings
Paide
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Trans Narva
Attack
0.66 -34%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Paide vs Trans Narva: result vs prediction
Paide 2 – 1 Trans Narva
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paide vs Trans Narva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.8% | 1.62 | +5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 61.8% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Trans Narva | 16.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 41.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
Paide vs Trans Narva stats
Paide and Trans Narva recent form
| Paide |
WLWWLW |
| Trans Narva |
LDDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paide and Trans Narva going into this match
Paide record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Paide wins
2Draws
4Trans Narva wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Trans Narva | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Trans Narva | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Paide | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Trans Narva | Paide | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Trans Narva | Paide | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2025-07-20 | Paide | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Paide | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Trans Narva | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-18 | Paide | Trans Narva | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-29 | Trans Narva | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paide vs Trans Narva odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.2%, draw 21.9%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.10 | 5.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.24 | 5.31 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.48 ▼ -0.07
X
4.10 —
2
5.15 ▲ +0.23
9 snapshots recorded, from .