Paide
vs
Tammeka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paide
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Paide vs Tammeka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Tammeka
| Probability | Paide | Draw | Tammeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.7% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 64.7% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Paide vs Tammeka match preview
Paide is set to face Tammeka in the Meistriliiga, with a strong probability of 65% for a Paide victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with Paide expected to generate 2.31 expected goals compared to Tammeka's 1.05. Recent form shows Paide with three wins in their last six matches, while Tammeka has struggled, recording only two wins in their last six outings.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 65%, and there is a 60% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Paide has dominated their encounters with Tammeka, winning 9 of the last 10 matches, leaving Tammeka with just one victory. This context adds to the anticipation of the upcoming fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paide and Tammeka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Paide and Tammeka attack and defence ratings
Paide
Tammeka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paide vs Tammeka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 64.7% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Tammeka | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 42.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 35.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Paide vs Tammeka stats
Paide and Tammeka recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paide and Tammeka season so far
Paide record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tammeka record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide vs Tammeka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Tammeka | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Paide | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tammeka | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-29 | Paide | Tammeka | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Paide | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 5-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Tammeka | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Tammeka | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Paide | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Paide | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Tammeka | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.