Meistriliiga
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Vaprus
vs
Kalju Nomme
2 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | M. Podholjuzin | ||
| 33′ | S. Viidas | ||
| 38′ | U. Korre | ||
| 46′ | I. JabirT. Baptista | ||
| 46′ | U. KorreM. Orlov | ||
| 48′ | A. Borolinstsikov | ||
| 53′ | M. Mannilaan | ||
| 56′ | A. BorolinstsikovA. Nikolajev | ||
| 66′ | S. Viidas | ||
| 68′ | N. IvanovE. E. Lotar Eyang | ||
| 72′ | S. Viidas | ||
| 73′ | S. ViidasV. Vallik | ||
| 73′ | S. KapperJ. Poder | ||
| 86′ | O. MusolitinD. Mashchenko | ||
| 87′ | E. E. Lotar Eyang | ||
| 87′ | M. VillotaM. Villota |
Vaprus
25%
Draw
24%
Kalju Nomme
51%
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.1% | 24.7% | 46.2% |
| Market | 23.5% | 23.3% | 53.2% |
| Final | 24.9% | 23.6% | 51.4% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +0.4% | -1.8% |
Why Kalju Nomme
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.42.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme expected goals
Vaprus
1.42
Kalju Nomme
1.83
Total expected goals: 3.25
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Kalju Nomme
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme: result vs prediction
Vaprus 2 – 2 Kalju Nomme
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 51.4% | 1.94 | -1.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 24.9% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Kalju Nomme | 51.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme stats
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme recent form
| Vaprus |
DLLLWW |
| Kalju Nomme |
LWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme going into this match
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Vaprus wins
1Draws
6Kalju Nomme wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-27 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-24 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs | 1-3 |
| 2024-11-09 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.5%, draw 23.3%, away 53.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.93 | 3.84 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.77 |
| Marathonbet | 3.85 | 3.84 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 3.94 | 1.78 |
| SBO | 3.54 | 3.53 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.80 ▼ -1.02
X
3.84 ▼ -0.36
2
1.68 ▲ +0.13
9 snapshots recorded, from .