Vaprus
vs
Kalju Nomme
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kalju Nomme
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.5% | 23.3% | 52.2% |
| Market | 19.0% | 21.8% | 59.1% |
| Final | 20.4% | 22.2% | 57.4% |
| Edge | +5.5% | +1.5% | -7.0% |
Why Kalju Nomme
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.35.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme match preview
In the upcoming Meistriliiga match between Vaprus and Kalju Nomme, the model indicates a probability of 24% for Vaprus to win, while Kalju Nomme holds a stronger 52% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an action-packed game, with a 66% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Vaprus with a mixed record of L-L-L-W-W-D, while Kalju Nomme has struggled, recording W-W-L-L-L-L. In their last seven encounters, Vaprus has secured three wins, matching Kalju Nomme's three victories, along with one draw. The expected goals for Vaprus stand at 1.35, compared to Kalju Nomme's 2.03, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 57.4% | 1.74 | -7.0% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 20.4% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Kalju Nomme | 57.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 47.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.0% |
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme stats
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme recent form
| Vaprus |
LLLWWD |
| Kalju Nomme |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Kalju Nomme season so far
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-27 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Vaprus | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Kalju Nomme odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.0%, draw 21.8%, away 59.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.82 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .