Kuressaare
vs
Paide
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paide
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Kuressaare vs Paide overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kuressaare vs Paide
| Probability | Kuressaare | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.2% | 30.4% | 41.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.2% | 30.4% | 41.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Paide
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Kuressaare vs Paide match preview
Kuressaare faces Paide in the Meistriliiga on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Kuressaare has a 32% chance of winning, while Paide is slightly favored at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Kuressaare recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Paide has three wins and two losses.
In terms of expected goals, Kuressaare is projected to score 1.10, and Paide 1.20. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, and there is a 48% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Kuressaare has not won any of their last seven encounters against Paide, with four losses and three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kuressaare and Paide expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.34
Kuressaare and Paide attack and defence ratings
Kuressaare
Paide
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kuressaare vs Paide markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kuressaare | 28.2% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Paide | 41.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 58.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Kuressaare vs Paide stats
Kuressaare and Paide recent form
| Kuressaare |
LWWDLL |
| Paide |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kuressaare and Paide season so far
Kuressaare record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare vs Paide head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Paide | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Paide | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kuressaare | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Kuressaare | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Paide | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 5-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Paide | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Kuressaare | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.