Paide
vs
Kalju Nomme
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paide
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.99.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Kalju Nomme
| Probability | Paide | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 26.1% | 20.5% |
| Market | 39.8% | 25.9% | 34.4% |
| Final | 43.2% | 25.9% | 30.9% |
| Edge | +3.4% | +0.1% | -3.5% |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paide below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (our 43.2% × 2.30 − 1).
Paide vs Kalju Nomme match preview
Paide faces Kalju Nomme in the Meistriliiga with a kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Paide has a 43% probability of winning, while Kalju Nomme stands at 31%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Paide, with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for Paide and 0.99 for Kalju Nomme.
In terms of recent form, Paide has recorded three wins, one loss, and two additional wins in their last six matches, while Kalju Nomme has two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same period. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Paide has secured three victories, with four matches ending in a draw and Kalju Nomme yet to win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paide and Kalju Nomme expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Paide and Kalju Nomme attack and defence ratings
Paide
Kalju Nomme
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paide vs Kalju Nomme markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 43.2% | 2.32 | +3.4% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 43.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Kalju Nomme | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Paide vs Kalju Nomme stats
Paide and Kalju Nomme recent form
| Paide |
WWWLWW |
| Kalju Nomme |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paide and Kalju Nomme season so far
Paide record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Kalju Nomme | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Kalju Nomme | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Paide | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Paide | Kalju Nomme | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Kalju Nomme | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Paide | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-28 | Kalju Nomme | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Paide | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-05 | Kalju Nomme | Paide | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Paide | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paide vs Kalju Nomme odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 25.9%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.44 | 2.61 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.44 | 2.61 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .