Trans Narva
vs
Nõmme United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nõmme United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nõmme United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trans Narva vs Nõmme United
| Probability | Trans Narva | Draw | Nõmme United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.7% | 24.9% | 42.5% |
| Market | 24.8% | 23.6% | 51.6% |
| Final | 26.8% | 23.9% | 49.3% |
| Edge | +2.0% | +0.3% | -2.3% |
Why Nõmme United
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 49.3% × 1.84 − 1).
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United match preview
Trans Narva will face Nõmme United in the Meistriliiga on October 27, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for this match indicate a 29% chance of a Trans Narva win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 46% chance for Nõmme United to secure victory. The expected goals are 1.53 for Trans Narva and 1.77 for Nõmme United, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Trans Narva has struggled with three losses and two draws in their last six matches, while Nõmme United has recorded two wins and four losses in the same span. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trans Narva and Nõmme United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Trans Narva and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 49.3% | 2.03 | -2.3% | 1.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trans Narva | 26.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Nõmme United | 49.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nõmme United win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United stats
Trans Narva and Nõmme United recent form
| Trans Narva |
LLLDDL |
| Nõmme United |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trans Narva and Nõmme United season so far
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
Nõmme United record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Nõmme United | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Trans Narva | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Nõmme United | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 5-1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Trans Narva | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs | 3-4 |
| 2024-09-21 | Nõmme United | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-07-26 | Trans Narva | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-23 | Nõmme United | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 1-3 |
| 2024-03-30 | Trans Narva | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Trans Narva vs Nõmme United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.8%, draw 23.6%, away 51.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.76 | 3.82 | 1.73 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.90 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.82 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 3.82 | 3.99 | 1.75 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .