Nõmme United
vs
Vaprus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nõmme United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Nõmme United vs Vaprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nõmme United vs Vaprus
| Probability | Nõmme United | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 24.6% | 33.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.8% | 24.6% | 33.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nõmme United
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus match preview
Nõmme United will face Vaprus in the Meistriliiga on October 23, 2026. According to our model, Nõmme United has a 42% probability of winning, while Vaprus stands at 34%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Nõmme United, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Nõmme United are 1.78, compared to Vaprus's 1.59, indicating a competitive matchup.
In terms of recent form, Nõmme United has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. Vaprus, on the other hand, has struggled, with one draw and five losses in their recent outings. Our model suggests a high probability for over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 67%, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nõmme United and Vaprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
Nõmme United and Vaprus attack and defence ratings
Nõmme United
Vaprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nõmme United vs Vaprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nõmme United | 41.8% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Vaprus | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.2% |
| No | 32.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nõmme United win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Nõmme United vs Vaprus stats
Nõmme United and Vaprus recent form
| Nõmme United |
WLLLLW |
| Vaprus |
LDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nõmme United and Vaprus season so far
Nõmme United record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nõmme United vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Nõmme United | Vaprus | Cup | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Nõmme United | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 7-1 |
| 2025-02-12 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Friendlies Clubs | 7-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Nõmme United | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2024-07-13 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-31 | Nõmme United | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-26 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-25 | Vaprus | Nõmme United | Esiliiga A | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.