Vaprus
vs
Kuressaare
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vaprus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vaprus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Kuressaare
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 27.5% | 33.1% |
| Market | 38.4% | 25.8% | 35.8% |
| Final | 38.6% | 26.2% | 35.2% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.4% | -0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 38.6% × 2.38 − 1).
Vaprus vs Kuressaare match preview
Vaprus and Kuressaare are set to clash in the Meistriliiga with both teams showing mixed recent form. Vaprus has struggled, recording a sequence of results that includes five losses and two draws in their last seven matches. In contrast, Kuressaare has shown some resilience, with two wins, a draw, and three losses in their most recent outings.
According to our model, the probabilities for this matchup suggest Vaprus has a 38% chance of winning, while Kuressaare stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Vaprus, with expected goals of 1.48 for Vaprus and 1.34 for Kuressaare. Additionally, there is a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Kuressaare expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Vaprus and Kuressaare attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Kuressaare markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 38.6% | 2.59 | +0.3% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 38.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Kuressaare | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vaprus win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Vaprus vs Kuressaare stats
Vaprus and Kuressaare recent form
| Vaprus |
LLDDLL |
| Kuressaare |
LLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Kuressaare season so far
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Friendlies Clubs | 9-2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-18 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Kuressaare | Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-06 | Vaprus | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vaprus vs Kuressaare odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 25.8%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.44 | 2.49 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.40 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.44 | 2.49 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .