Kalju Nomme
vs
Kuressaare
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kalju Nomme
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare
| Probability | Kalju Nomme | Draw | Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 27.3% | 21.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.0% | 27.3% | 21.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kalju Nomme
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare match preview
Kalju Nomme holds a slight advantage over Kuressaare with a 51% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Kuressaare at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Expected goals for Kalju Nomme are 1.60, compared to Kuressaare's 0.97, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Kalju Nomme has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Kuressaare has two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same period. Historically, Kalju Nomme has dominated their encounters, winning six out of the last seven meetings, with one draw and no wins for Kuressaare. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare attack and defence ratings
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalju Nomme | 51.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Kuressaare | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kalju Nomme win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare stats
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare recent form
| Kalju Nomme |
WLDLWW |
| Kuressaare |
LLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kalju Nomme and Kuressaare season so far
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kuressaare record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalju Nomme vs Kuressaare head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Kuressaare | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Kuressaare | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Kalju Nomme | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Kuressaare | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kalju Nomme | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Kalju Nomme | Kuressaare | Meistriliiga | 4-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Kuressaare | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.