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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 36

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United

1 – 1 Full time

Kuressaare Linnastaadion, KuressaareReferee: K. Koppel

Kuressaare 33%
Draw 27%
Nõmme United 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kuressaare vs Nõmme United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKuressaareDrawNõmme United
Model42.7%28.2%29.2%
Market29.7%26.0%44.2%
Final33.0%26.6%40.5%
Edge+3.2%+0.5%-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Nõmme United

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kuressaare ↓ / Nõmme United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Kuressaare and Nõmme United expected goals

Kuressaare 1.48
Nõmme United 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.66

Kuressaare and Nõmme United attack and defence ratings

Kuressaare

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Nõmme United

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United: result vs prediction

Kuressaare 1 – 1 Nõmme United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nõmme United 40.5% 2.47 -3.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.7% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.8% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kuressaare33.0%
Draw26.6%
Nõmme United40.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes54.7%
No45.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.5%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)67.0%
Handicap -1Nõmme United win12.4%
Push (exactly one goal)16.7%
Loss70.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-09.1%
2-19.0%

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United stats

Kuressaare and Nõmme United recent form

newest first
Kuressaare LDLLWW
Nõmme United LWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kuressaare and Nõmme United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kuressaare record

  • They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nõmme United record

  • They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Kuressaare wins 4Draws 3Nõmme United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-11Nõmme UnitedKuressaareMeistriliiga3-2
2026-05-20KuressaareNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga2-1
2026-04-25Nõmme UnitedKuressaareMeistriliiga2-1
2026-02-07KuressaareNõmme UnitedFriendlies Clubs3-3
2025-01-19KuressaareNõmme UnitedFriendlies Clubs2-1
2024-09-28KuressaareNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga4-1
2024-09-01Nõmme UnitedKuressaareMeistriliiga2-2
2024-06-16KuressaareNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga1-1
2024-05-04Nõmme UnitedKuressaareMeistriliiga1-1
2023-02-17Nõmme UnitedKuressaareFriendlies Clubs3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.7%, draw 26.0%, away 44.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.09 3.45 2.03
Bet365 3.20 3.40 1.95
BetVictor 2.70 3.30 1.90
Betano 2.92 3.55 2.05
Betfair 2.90 3.80 2.00
Dafabet 3.05 3.70 2.09
Marathonbet 3.02 3.45 2.01
Pinnacle 3.16 3.59 2.10
William Hill 3.00 3.30 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.02 ▲ +0.43
X 3.45 ▼ -0.17
2 2.03 ▼ -0.18

9 snapshots recorded, from .