Tammeka
vs
Vaprus
0 – 5 Full time
Tammeka vs Vaprus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tammeka vs Vaprus
| Probability | Tammeka | Draw | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| Market | 35.2% | 27.2% | 37.6% |
| Final | 42.8% | 25.2% | 31.9% |
| Edge | +7.6% | -2.0% | -5.6% |
Why Tammeka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tammeka below our published probability: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tammeka and Vaprus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Tammeka and Vaprus attack and defence ratings
Tammeka
Vaprus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tammeka vs Vaprus: result vs prediction
Tammeka 0 – 5 Vaprus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tammeka vs Vaprus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 42.8% | 2.33 | +7.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tammeka | 42.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Vaprus | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tammeka win | 44.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Tammeka vs Vaprus stats
Tammeka and Vaprus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tammeka and Vaprus going into this match
Tammeka record
- They have won 17 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tammeka vs Vaprus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Vaprus | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 5-1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Tammeka | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Vaprus | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Tammeka | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Vaprus | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 8-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Vaprus | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Tammeka | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-5 |
| 2025-02-16 | Tammeka | Vaprus | Friendlies Clubs | 6-1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Vaprus | Tammeka | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-02 | Tammeka | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tammeka vs Vaprus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 27.2%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 2.70 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.74 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .