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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 36

Trans Narva vs Laagri

3 – 1 Full time

Narva Kalev-Fama staadion, NarvaReferee: R. Maalinn

Trans Narva 27%
Draw 26%
Laagri 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Trans Narva vs Laagri overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Trans Narva vs Laagri

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTrans NarvaDrawLaagri
Model17.2%27.1%55.7%
Market30.5%25.0%44.5%
Final27.2%25.5%47.3%
Edge-3.3%+0.5%+2.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Laagri

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.79.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Laagri below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Trans Narva ↓ / Laagri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 13% 12% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Trans Narva and Laagri expected goals

Trans Narva 0.79
Laagri 1.61

Total expected goals: 2.41

Trans Narva and Laagri attack and defence ratings

Trans Narva

Attack 0.57 -43%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Laagri

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Trans Narva vs Laagri: result vs prediction

Trans Narva 3 – 1 Laagri

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Trans Narva vs Laagri markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Laagri 47.3% 2.11 +2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.8% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score No 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.3% 2.26 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Trans Narva27.2%
Draw25.5%
Laagri47.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%
Both teams to scoreYes45.0%
No55.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.7%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)72.8%
Handicap -1Laagri win30.8%
Push (exactly one goal)24.9%
Loss44.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-113.4%
1-112.7%
0-211.7%

Trans Narva vs Laagri stats

Trans Narva and Laagri recent form

newest first
Trans Narva LLLLLD
Laagri LLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Trans Narva and Laagri going into this match

league record before kick-off

Trans Narva record

  • They have won 5 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Laagri record

  • They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Trans Narva vs Laagri head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Trans Narva wins 0Draws 6Laagri wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-10LaagriTrans NarvaMeistriliiga3-0
2026-05-30LaagriTrans NarvaMeistriliiga3-0
2026-03-07Trans NarvaLaagriMeistriliiga1-2
2025-10-25LaagriTrans NarvaMeistriliiga1-0
2025-09-14Trans NarvaLaagriMeistriliiga1-3
2025-05-27Trans NarvaLaagriMeistriliiga4-2
2025-03-29LaagriTrans NarvaMeistriliiga0-3
2024-10-31LaagriTrans NarvaCup0-3
2023-09-23Trans NarvaLaagriMeistriliiga1-3
2023-08-18LaagriTrans NarvaMeistriliiga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Trans Narva vs Laagri odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 25.0%, away 44.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.96 3.60 2.04
Bet365 2.88 3.70 2.05
BetVictor 2.70 3.30 1.90
Betano 2.95 3.60 2.02
Betfair 2.90 3.80 2.00
Dafabet 3.05 3.80 2.05
Marathonbet 2.89 3.60 2.02
Pinnacle 3.09 3.88 2.04
William Hill 3.00 3.50 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.95 ▲ +0.20
X 3.60 ▲ +0.08
2 2.02 ▼ -0.14

9 snapshots recorded, from .