Garuda Lions
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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 36

Paide vs Flora Tallinn

2 – 2 Full time

Paide linnastaadion, PaideReferee: J. Jaanovits

Paide 40%
Draw 26%
Flora Tallinn 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Paide vs Flora Tallinn overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs Flora Tallinn

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPaideDrawFlora Tallinn
Model52.4%26.7%20.9%
Market36.2%25.5%38.2%
Final40.3%25.8%33.9%
Edge+4.0%+0.3%-4.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Paide

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Paide below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paide ↓ / Flora Tallinn → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Paide and Flora Tallinn expected goals

Paide 1.66
Flora Tallinn 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.64

Paide and Flora Tallinn attack and defence ratings

Paide

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Flora Tallinn

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn: result vs prediction

Paide 2 – 2 Flora Tallinn

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Paide vs Flora Tallinn markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paide 40.3% 2.48 +4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.9% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.7% 1.94 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.6% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paide40.3%
Draw25.8%
Flora Tallinn33.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%
Both teams to scoreYes51.7%
No48.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.1%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1Paide win29.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss47.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-010.7%
2-09.9%

Paide vs Flora Tallinn stats

Paide and Flora Tallinn recent form

newest first
Paide WLWWWL
Flora Tallinn WLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paide and Flora Tallinn going into this match

league record before kick-off

Paide record

  • They have won 19 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flora Tallinn record

  • They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

Paide vs Flora Tallinn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Paide wins 1Draws 4Flora Tallinn wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-30Flora TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-2
2026-06-21Flora TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-2
2026-05-23PaideFlora TallinnCup1-5
2026-04-26PaideFlora TallinnMeistriliiga1-2
2026-02-20PaideFlora TallinnFriendlies Clubs1-3
2025-10-26PaideFlora TallinnMeistriliiga1-1
2025-06-21PaideFlora TallinnMeistriliiga2-1
2025-06-15Flora TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-2
2025-04-18Flora TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-0
2025-02-22PaideFlora TallinnFriendlies Clubs1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paide vs Flora Tallinn odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.2%, draw 25.5%, away 38.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.45 3.65 2.29
Bet365 2.50 3.60 2.30
BetVictor 2.30 3.20 2.20
Betano 2.52 3.40 2.37
Betfair 2.45 3.40 2.45
Dafabet 2.60 3.60 2.41
Marathonbet 2.45 3.65 2.29
Pinnacle 2.63 3.55 2.44
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▲ +0.05
X 3.55 ▼ -0.10
2 2.37 ▲ +0.07

9 snapshots recorded, from .