Vaprus
vs
Paide
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paide
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Vaprus vs Paide overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vaprus vs Paide
| Probability | Vaprus | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.1% | 24.9% | 52.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.1% | 24.9% | 52.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Paide
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Vaprus vs Paide match preview
Vaprus faces Paide in the Meistriliiga with a challenging matchup ahead. Vaprus has struggled recently, recording a series of losses and draws, while Paide has shown stronger form with four wins in their last six matches. According to our model, Vaprus has a 23% chance of winning, compared to Paide's 52%, with a predicted scoreline of 1-2, occurring at a 10% likelihood.
In terms of scoring, the expected goals for Vaprus stand at 1.17, while Paide is projected at 1.85. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 58%, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 59%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Vaprus has secured two wins, while Paide has dominated with eight victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vaprus and Paide expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Vaprus and Paide attack and defence ratings
Vaprus
Paide
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vaprus vs Paide markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paide | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vaprus | 23.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Paide | 52.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% |
| No | 40.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paide win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.3% |
Vaprus vs Paide stats
Vaprus and Paide recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vaprus and Paide season so far
Vaprus record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paide record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vaprus vs Paide head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Paide | Vaprus | Cup | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-09 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-23 | Vaprus | Paide | Meistriliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Paide | Vaprus | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.