Flora Tallinn
vs
Trans Narva
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flora Tallinn
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva
| Probability | Flora Tallinn | Draw | Trans Narva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 20.4% | 16.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.0% | 20.4% | 16.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Flora Tallinn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva match preview
Flora Tallinn enters the match against Trans Narva with a 63% probability of winning, while Trans Narva has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Flora Tallinn, with an expected goals tally of 2.34 for Flora Tallinn compared to 1.15 for Trans Narva. Additionally, there is a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score 63% of the time.
Recent form shows Flora Tallinn with a mixed record of L-L-W-L-L-W, while Trans Narva has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-D-L in their last five matches. In their last ten encounters, Flora Tallinn has dominated with six wins and four draws, leaving Trans Narva without a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva attack and defence ratings
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 41.7% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 63.0% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Trans Narva | 16.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 41.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva stats
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva recent form
| Flora Tallinn |
LLWLLW |
| Trans Narva |
LLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flora Tallinn and Trans Narva season so far
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Trans Narva record
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-3 |
| 2026-05-05 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 6-0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-17 | Trans Narva | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-03 | Flora Tallinn | Trans Narva | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.