Meistriliiga
·
Full time
·Matchday 36
FC Levadia Tallinn
vs
Kalju Nomme
2 – 2 Full time
FC Levadia Tallinn
57%
Draw
22%
Kalju Nomme
21%
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme
| Probability | FC Levadia Tallinn | Draw | Kalju Nomme |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.9% | 20.3% | 12.8% |
| Market | 53.3% | 22.8% | 24.0% |
| Final | 56.7% | 22.2% | 21.2% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
Why FC Levadia Tallinn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Levadia Tallinn below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme expected goals
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.24
Kalju Nomme
0.90
Total expected goals: 3.14
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme attack and defence ratings
FC Levadia Tallinn
Attack
1.61 +61%
Defence
0.66 -34%
Kalju Nomme
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.79 -21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme: result vs prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn 2 – 2 Kalju Nomme
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 56.7% | 1.76 | +3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 56.7% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Kalju Nomme | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Levadia Tallinn win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme stats
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme recent form
| FC Levadia Tallinn |
WWWWWW |
| Kalju Nomme |
WWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kalju Nomme going into this match
FC Levadia Tallinn record
- They have won 28 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Kalju Nomme record
- They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5FC Levadia Tallinn wins
3Draws
2Kalju Nomme wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-06-20 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-04 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Kalju Nomme | FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-08-25 | FC Levadia Tallinn | Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.3%, draw 22.8%, away 24.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 3.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.95 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.10 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.54 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.71 ▲ +0.11
X
4.00 ▼ -0.10
2
3.80 ▼ -0.35
9 snapshots recorded, from .