Garuda Lions
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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 28

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva

2 – 0 Full time

12′M. Mannilaan
37′M. Mannilaan
66′E. ZuravljovN. Baljabkin
66′E. E. Lotar EyangI. Jabir
66′S. KondrattsevE. Petkus
72′N. Ivanov
75′W. Awusi
80′N. IvanovM. Tambedou
80′T. BaptistaF. Jekimov
82′M. VelijevA. Besigirskis
84′R. Siht
84′C. CampagnaK. Miranda da Silva
84′W. AwusiG. Slein
90′I. Jabir

Hiiu Stadium, TallinnReferee: J. Jakobson

Kalju Nomme 63%
Draw 21%
Trans Narva 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKalju NommeDrawTrans Narva
Model66.9%20.1%13.0%
Market61.7%21.7%16.7%
Final63.0%21.3%15.8%
Edge+5.2%-1.5%-3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Kalju Nomme

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kalju Nomme below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kalju Nomme ↓ / Trans Narva → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 8% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva expected goals

Kalju Nomme 2.27
Trans Narva 0.92

Total expected goals: 3.19

Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva attack and defence ratings

Kalju Nomme

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Trans Narva

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva: result vs prediction

Kalju Nomme 2 – 0 Trans Narva

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kalju Nomme 63.0% 1.59 +5.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.8% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.2% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Kalju Nomme win 44.6% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kalju Nomme63.0%
Draw21.3%
Trans Narva15.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Both teams to scoreYes54.8%
No45.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.2%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)37.0%
Handicap -1Kalju Nomme win44.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss33.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.6%
2-19.8%
1-19.5%

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva stats

Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva recent form

newest first
Kalju Nomme LLLLWW
Trans Narva DLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kalju Nomme record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Trans Narva record

  • They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Kalju Nomme wins 2Draws 3Trans Narva wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-26Trans NarvaKalju NommeCup2-0
2026-08-08Trans NarvaKalju NommeMeistriliiga0-2
2026-05-01Trans NarvaKalju NommeMeistriliiga0-3
2026-04-03Kalju NommeTrans NarvaMeistriliiga2-1
2025-09-17Trans NarvaKalju NommeMeistriliiga0-0
2025-08-17Kalju NommeTrans NarvaMeistriliiga1-2
2025-06-15Kalju NommeTrans NarvaMeistriliiga2-0
2025-04-19Trans NarvaKalju NommeMeistriliiga1-2
2025-01-29Kalju NommeTrans NarvaFriendlies Clubs0-1
2024-10-20Kalju NommeTrans NarvaMeistriliiga2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kalju Nomme vs Trans Narva odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 21.5%, away 16.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.44 4.15 6.11
Bet365 1.45 4.10 5.25
BetVictor 1.40 3.60 4.75
Betano 1.50 4.10 5.10
Betfair 1.40 4.40 5.50
Dafabet 1.48 4.30 5.20
Marathonbet 1.43 4.15 5.90
Pinnacle 1.51 4.37 5.32
SBO 1.44 3.93 5.03
Superbet 1.50 4.30 5.15
Unibet 1.47 4.20 5.60
William Hill 1.44 3.90 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 —
X 4.10 ▼ -0.05
2 5.32 ▼ -0.40

9 snapshots recorded, from .