Garuda Lions
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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 26

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme

2 – 1 Full time

24′D. Kuraksin
32′R. Siht
45′D. Kuraksin
46′D. SotsugovT. Baptista
60′R. SammulM. Jekimov
60′D. KuraksinR. Alliku
60′S. ZenjovE. Sorga
71′M. Podholjuzin
72′S. AlamaaD. Zotov
72′A. BorolinstsikovA. Nikolajev
72′E. E. Lotar EyangI. Jabir
76′M. TambedouF. Jekimov
85′M. KukkonenT. Usta
85′M. MannilaanIdalecio

A. Le Coq Arena, TallinnReferee: J. Jaanovits

Flora Tallinn 32%
Draw 26%
Kalju Nomme 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlora TallinnDrawKalju Nomme
Model30.0%24.5%45.5%
Market33.2%26.4%40.5%
Final32.4%25.9%41.7%
Edge-3.1%-1.8%+5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Kalju Nomme

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.48.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kalju Nomme below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Flora Tallinn ↓ / Kalju Nomme → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme expected goals

Flora Tallinn 1.48
Kalju Nomme 1.84

Total expected goals: 3.32

Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme attack and defence ratings

Flora Tallinn

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Kalju Nomme

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme: result vs prediction

Flora Tallinn 2 – 1 Kalju Nomme

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kalju Nomme 41.7% 2.40 +5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Flora Tallinn32.4%
Draw25.9%
Kalju Nomme41.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%
Both teams to scoreYes65.9%
No34.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.3%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)67.6%
Handicap -1Kalju Nomme win25.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
1-29.1%
2-17.3%

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme stats

Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme recent form

newest first
Flora Tallinn WLLWLL
Kalju Nomme LLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Flora Tallinn and Kalju Nomme going into this match

league record before kick-off

Flora Tallinn record

  • They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Kalju Nomme record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Flora Tallinn wins 1Draws 4Kalju Nomme wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Kalju NommeFlora TallinnMeistriliiga0-1
2026-03-15Flora TallinnKalju NommeMeistriliiga0-1
2025-09-28Kalju NommeFlora TallinnMeistriliiga3-1
2025-07-06Flora TallinnKalju NommeMeistriliiga1-0
2025-04-27Flora TallinnKalju NommeMeistriliiga2-3
2025-04-05Kalju NommeFlora TallinnMeistriliiga1-2
2025-02-01Flora TallinnKalju NommeFriendlies Clubs1-0
2024-10-23Flora TallinnKalju NommeMeistriliiga3-2
2024-09-25Kalju NommeFlora TallinnMeistriliiga3-0
2024-06-15Kalju NommeFlora TallinnMeistriliiga0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Flora Tallinn vs Kalju Nomme odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 25.9%, away 39.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.77 3.44 2.23
Bet365 2.50 3.50 2.35
BetVictor 2.50 3.20 2.05
Betano 2.50 3.35 2.42
Betfair 2.50 3.60 2.40
Dafabet 2.55 3.50 2.49
Marathonbet 2.72 3.44 2.21
Pinnacle 2.81 3.54 2.27
Superbet 2.55 3.45 2.47
Unibet 2.65 3.50 2.28
William Hill 2.75 3.30 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.74 ▲ +0.23
X 3.44 ▼ -0.07
2 2.24 ▼ -0.11

9 snapshots recorded, from .