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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 26

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn

0 – 2 Full time

14′Daniel Cabral
27′M. JobartehJ. Palacios
42′M. Bessala
46′D. DarboeH. Anier
46′M. BessalaN. Kutateladze
49′M. P. Sohna
58′M. Skvortsov
65′S. LutsD. Luts
67′H. Anier
68′M. Skvortsov
69′M. SkvortsovM. Ainsalu
69′M. RoosnuppE. Otoo
80′H. OjamaaK. Piht
80′WendellG. Lehtmets
84′A. NwankwoR. Peetson
90′Joao Pedro

Paide linnastaadion, PaideReferee: G. Osomkov

Paide 18%
Draw 22%
FC Levadia Tallinn 60%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPaideDrawFC Levadia Tallinn
Model24.1%23.9%51.9%
Market16.1%20.8%63.1%
Final18.1%21.6%60.3%
Edge+8.1%+3.1%-11.2%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Levadia Tallinn

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paide ↓ / FC Levadia Tal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn expected goals

Paide 1.29
FC Levadia Tallinn 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.24

Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn attack and defence ratings

Paide

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.89 -11%

FC Levadia Tallinn

Attack 1.58 +58%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn: result vs prediction

Paide 0 – 2 FC Levadia Tallinn

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Levadia Tallinn 60.3% 1.66 -11.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.9% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.2% 1.58 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.1% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paide18.1%
Draw21.6%
FC Levadia Tallinn60.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%
Both teams to scoreYes63.2%
No36.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)39.7%
12 (either side)78.4%
X2 (draw or away)81.9%
Handicap -1FC Levadia Tallinn win30.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss48.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
1-29.6%
0-27.5%

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn stats

Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn recent form

newest first
Paide WWDLLW
FC Levadia Tallinn WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn going into this match

league record before kick-off

Paide record

  • They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Levadia Tallinn record

  • They have won 19 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Paide wins 1Draws 6FC Levadia Tallinn wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-26FC Levadia TallinnPaideCup4-1
2026-05-17PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga1-3
2026-03-22FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga2-2
2025-10-22FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga1-2
2025-07-04PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-3
2025-05-11FC Levadia TallinnPaideMeistriliiga2-1
2025-04-23PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga2-1
2024-11-09PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga3-0
2024-05-29PaideFC Levadia TallinnMeistriliiga0-1
2024-05-25FC Levadia TallinnPaideCup4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.8%, draw 21.7%, away 60.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.90 4.33 1.43
Bet365 5.25 4.50 1.42
BetVictor 5.00 3.75 1.36
Betano 4.50 3.80 1.60
Betfair 4.75 4.10 1.55
Dafabet 4.70 4.10 1.60
Marathonbet 5.70 4.33 1.42
Pinnacle 5.75 4.52 1.47
Superbet 4.55 4.00 1.60
Unibet 4.35 3.90 1.63
William Hill 5.50 4.00 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.60 ▲ +0.67
X 4.33 ▲ +0.18
2 1.42 ▼ -0.08

10 snapshots recorded, from .