Flora Tallinn
vs
Paide
1 – 2 Full time
Flora Tallinn vs Paide overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Flora Tallinn vs Paide
| Probability | Flora Tallinn | Draw | Paide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 26.9% | 42.1% |
| Market | 42.4% | 25.1% | 32.5% |
| Final | 39.5% | 25.6% | 34.9% |
| Edge | -11.3% | +1.7% | +9.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Flora Tallinn and Paide expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Flora Tallinn and Paide attack and defence ratings
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Flora Tallinn vs Paide: result vs prediction
Flora Tallinn 1 – 2 Paide
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Flora Tallinn vs Paide markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 39.5% | 2.53 | -11.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flora Tallinn | 39.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Paide | 34.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flora Tallinn win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 69.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Flora Tallinn vs Paide stats
Flora Tallinn and Paide recent form
| Flora Tallinn |
LWLLLW |
| Paide |
WDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Flora Tallinn and Paide going into this match
Flora Tallinn record
- They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Paide record
- They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flora Tallinn vs Paide head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Flora Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Paide | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Paide | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Paide | Flora Tallinn | Meistriliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Flora Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-18 | Flora Tallinn | Paide | Meistriliiga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Flora Tallinn vs Paide odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 25.1%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.60 | 2.76 |
| Unibet | 2.14 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .