Garuda Lions
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Meistriliiga · Full time ·Matchday 25

Nõmme United vs Laagri

1 – 2 Full time

Referee: M. Pukk

Nõmme United 35%
Draw 25%
Laagri 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Nõmme United vs Laagri overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nõmme United vs Laagri

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNõmme UnitedDrawLaagri
Model30.6%24.1%45.3%
Market36.8%25.1%38.1%
Final35.2%24.9%39.9%
Edge-6.2%-1.0%+7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Laagri

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Laagri below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nõmme United ↓ / Laagri → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 10% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Nõmme United and Laagri expected goals

Nõmme United 1.53
Laagri 1.89

Total expected goals: 3.42

Nõmme United and Laagri attack and defence ratings

Nõmme United

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.43 +43%

Laagri

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nõmme United vs Laagri: result vs prediction

Nõmme United 1 – 2 Laagri

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Meistriliiga

Before and after this match

Nõmme United vs Laagri markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Laagri 39.9% 2.51 +7.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.4% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.5% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nõmme United35.2%
Draw24.9%
Laagri39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.4%
Under 2.533.6%
Both teams to scoreYes67.5%
No32.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)64.8%
Handicap -1Laagri win25.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
1-28.9%
2-17.3%

Nõmme United vs Laagri stats

Nõmme United and Laagri recent form

newest first
Nõmme United LLLLWW
Laagri WLLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nõmme United and Laagri going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nõmme United record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Laagri record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nõmme United vs Laagri head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Nõmme United wins 0Draws 4Laagri wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-20LaagriNõmme UnitedMeistriliiga1-3
2026-04-18Nõmme UnitedLaagriMeistriliiga1-2
2025-10-30LaagriNõmme UnitedCup0-1
2024-08-14LaagriNõmme UnitedCup3-0
2022-10-22LaagriNõmme UnitedEsiliiga A5-1
2022-09-04Nõmme UnitedLaagriEsiliiga A4-1
2022-04-28LaagriNõmme UnitedEsiliiga A4-2
2022-04-10Nõmme UnitedLaagriEsiliiga A3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nõmme United vs Laagri odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 25.1%, away 38.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.47 3.54 2.36
Bet365 2.45 3.70 2.25
Betano 2.40 3.60 2.40
Betfair 2.50 3.80 2.30
Dafabet 2.48 3.75 2.44
Marathonbet 2.47 3.54 2.36
Pinnacle 2.60 3.60 2.41
Superbet 2.50 3.65 2.42
Unibet 2.25 3.85 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.48 ▲ +0.18
X 3.62 ▼ -0.13
2 2.39 ▼ -0.06

7 snapshots recorded, from .