Lahti
vs
Mariehamn
2 – 1 Full time
| 38′ | A. Lindholm | ||
| 60′ | J. HeydenL. Andersson | ||
| 61′ | A. BergvikM. Hyvonen | ||
| 61′ | V. WidlundA. Stroud | ||
| 64′ | C. MontielE. Andersson | ||
| 64′ | Martim AugustoJ. Ojanen | ||
| 65′ | A. Stroud | ||
| 71′ | Noah Nurmi | ||
| 75′ | T. InkinenV. Vehkonen | ||
| 79′ | Foster Gyamfi | ||
| 81′ | Romaric Yapi | ||
| 83′ | M. SarrD. Heikkinen | ||
| 83′ | A. LindholmA. Belabid | ||
| 87′ | J. Ojanen | ||
| 88′ | T. KoivistoA. Soiniemi | ||
| 89′ | José Müller | ||
| 90′ | Väinö Vehkonen |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 483 | Accurate passes | 203 |
Lahti vs Mariehamn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lahti vs Mariehamn
| Probability | Lahti | Draw | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.0% | 26.3% | 13.7% |
| Market | 59.9% | 22.6% | 17.5% |
| Final | 59.9% | 23.5% | 16.6% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +3.6% | -3.8% |
Why Lahti
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.67.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lahti and Mariehamn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Lahti and Mariehamn attack and defence ratings
Lahti
Mariehamn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lahti vs Mariehamn: result vs prediction
Lahti 2 – 1 Mariehamn
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Relegation Group - 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lahti vs Mariehamn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lahti | 59.9% | 1.67 | +0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lahti | 59.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Mariehamn | 16.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lahti win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 40.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Lahti vs Mariehamn stats
Lahti and Mariehamn recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lahti and Mariehamn going into this match
Lahti record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
Mariehamn record
- They have won 3 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lahti vs Mariehamn head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mariehamn | Lahti | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mariehamn | Lahti | Suomen Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Lahti | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mariehamn | Lahti | League Cup | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-19 | Lahti | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Mariehamn | Lahti | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-12 | Lahti | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-23 | Lahti | Mariehamn | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Mariehamn | Lahti | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-23 | Lahti | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lahti vs Mariehamn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.9%, draw 22.6%, away 17.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.54 | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.28 | 5.80 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.96 | 5.13 |
| Superbet | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Unibet | 1.58 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .