Veikkausliiga · 2026-09-12T14:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Relegation Group - 24

Mariehamn vs Turku PS

1 – 0 Full time

7′			Arvid Bergvik
35′			Adam LarssonThomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
60′			Tomi VakipartaNils Veinbergs
60′			Abdoulie TambaEetu Turkki
67′			Ludvig Richtner
69′			Charlemagne Azongnitode
72′			Ivan Piñol Zoroa
72′			Pau JuvantenyLasse Ikonen
72′			Samuel Anini Jr.Joel Ahen
74′			Viktor WidlundMarlo Hyvonen
74′			Arvid BergvikAdam Stroud
76′			Charlemagne AzongnitodeOscar Häggström
82′			Tuomas Koivisto
83′			Jelle van der HeydenAnttoni Huttunen
88′			Lasse Ikonen

Wiklof Holding Arena, MariehamnReferee: Antti Munukka, Finland

Mariehamn

35%

Draw

27%

Turku PS

38%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

12	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	4
43	Possession %	57
1	Corners	7
12	Fouls	9
0	Offsides	1
4	Saves	3
339	Accurate passes	432

Mariehamn vs Turku PS overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mariehamn vs Turku PS

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Mariehamn	Draw	Turku PS
Model	22.9%	29.7%	47.4%
Market	39.2%	25.7%	35.1%
Final	35.1%	26.7%	38.2%
Edge	-16.2%	+4.0%	+12.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Turku PS

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.90.
The market prices Turku PS below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

68%

3+ goals

41%

No goals

11%

Mariehamn and Turku PS expected goals

Mariehamn

0.90

Turku PS

1.41

Total expected goals: 2.31

Mariehamn and Turku PS attack and defence ratings

Mariehamn

Attack

0.83 -17%

Defence

1.20 +20%

Turku PS

Attack

0.84 -16%

Defence

0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mariehamn vs Turku PS: result vs prediction

Mariehamn 1 – 0 Turku PS

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Relegation Group - 24 fixtures

Veikkausliiga

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Before and after this match

Mariehamn, previous: Lahti v Mariehamn analysis
Mariehamn, next: SJK vs Mariehamn prediction
Turku PS, previous: Turku PS vs SJK: odds and pick
Turku PS, next: Turku PS vs Ilves prediction

Mariehamn vs Turku PS markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Turku PS	38.2%	2.62	+12.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	59.3%	1.69	—	—
Both teams to score	No	53.8%	1.86	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.3%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	52.6%	1.90	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Mariehamn	35.1%
	Draw	26.7%
	Turku PS	38.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40.7%
	Under 2.5	59.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	46.2%
	No	53.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.8%
	12 (either side)	73.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.9%
Handicap -1	Turku PS win	23.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.7%
	Loss	52.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.9%
	0-1	12.7%
	0-0	11.2%

Mariehamn vs Turku PS stats

Mariehamn and Turku PS recent form

newest first

Mariehamn	LWWWLL
Turku PS	DDDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mariehamn and Turku PS going into this match

league record before kick-off

Mariehamn record

They have won 3 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 12 of 23 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Turku PS record

They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.

Mariehamn vs Turku PS head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Mariehamn wins 6Draws 3Turku PS wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-01	Turku PS	Mariehamn	Veikkausliiga	3-0
2026-04-04	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Veikkausliiga	1-1
2026-02-11	Mariehamn	Turku PS	League Cup	1-1
2025-05-28	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Suomen Cup	2-2
2024-03-22	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Friendlies Clubs	1-3
2020-09-14	Turku PS	Mariehamn	Veikkausliiga	1-1
2020-08-16	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Veikkausliiga	1-0
2020-02-02	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Suomen Cup	1-1
2018-09-23	Mariehamn	Turku PS	Veikkausliiga	2-2
2018-06-29	Turku PS	Mariehamn	Veikkausliiga	2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mariehamn vs Turku PS odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 25.8%, away 35.4%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.48	3.50	2.48
1xBet	2.36	3.72	2.63
888Sport	2.40	3.50	2.50
Bet365	2.35	3.60	2.70
BetVictor	2.38	3.40	2.63
Betano	2.40	3.65	2.62
Betfair	2.30	3.50	2.60
Dafabet	2.48	3.70	2.65
Marathonbet	2.36	3.72	2.63
Pinnacle	2.40	4.01	2.72
SBO	2.32	3.26	2.56
Superbet	2.45	3.60	2.60
Unibet	2.65	3.40	2.50
William Hill	2.30	3.60	2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.36 ▼ -0.72

X 3.60 ▲ +0.15

2 2.63 ▲ +0.52

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-06T08:10:02Z.