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Erovnuli Liga 2 · Full time ·Matchday 25

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti

3 – 1 Full time

22′S. Kukhianidze
31′L. TsulaiaL. Gadilia
31′R. GagityL. Kadaria
43′N. Mensa
45′J. Esonkulov
55′L. KobakhidzeS. Dvalishvili
57′L. Gadilia
61′G. KhetsurianiD. Lomtadze
61′S. KukhianidzeN. Kharabadze
64′D. AmoakoG. Pipia
64′A. OppongL. Sulkhanishvili
64′B. NuhuI. Mekhtievi
66′T. Bzekalava
76′N. Kharabadze
78′T. BzekalavaE. Sadikov
80′D. LomtadzeA. Jolokhava

Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili

Merani Martvili 41%
Draw 28%
Aragvi Dusheti 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMerani MartviliDrawAragvi Dusheti
Model28.4%31.5%40.1%
Market45.2%27.4%27.4%
Final41.0%28.4%30.6%
Edge-16.8%+4.1%+12.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Merani Martvil ↓ / Aragvi Dusheti → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 10% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Merani Martvili and Aragvi Dusheti expected goals

Merani Martvili 0.98
Aragvi Dusheti 1.22

Total expected goals: 2.20

Merani Martvili and Aragvi Dusheti attack and defence ratings

Merani Martvili

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Aragvi Dusheti

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti: result vs prediction

Merani Martvili 3 – 1 Aragvi Dusheti

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Erovnuli Liga 2

Before and after this match

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Merani Martvili 41.0% 2.44 -16.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 62.2% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score No 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.6% 1.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Merani Martvili41.0%
Draw28.4%
Aragvi Dusheti30.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.8%
Under 2.562.2%
Both teams to scoreYes45.4%
No54.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.4%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)59.0%
Handicap -1Merani Martvili win10.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss71.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-012.4%
0-112.1%

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti stats

Merani Martvili and Aragvi Dusheti recent form

newest first
Merani Martvili LLLDLL
Aragvi Dusheti LDWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Merani Martvili and Aragvi Dusheti going into this match

league record before kick-off

Merani Martvili record

  • They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aragvi Dusheti record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Merani Martvili wins 4Draws 0Aragvi Dusheti wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-29Aragvi DushetiMerani MartviliErovnuli Liga 21-1
2026-04-18Merani MartviliAragvi DushetiErovnuli Liga 21-1
2020-10-05Aragvi DushetiMerani MartviliErovnuli Liga 21-1
2020-08-24Merani MartviliAragvi DushetiDavid Kipiani Cup0-0
2020-07-14Merani MartviliAragvi DushetiErovnuli Liga 22-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Merani Martvili vs Aragvi Dusheti odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.2%, draw 27.4%, away 27.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.00 3.30 3.35
Bet365 2.00 3.25 3.25
Betano 2.02 3.25 3.30
Betfair 1.95 3.40 3.30
Marathonbet 1.98 3.30 3.28

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.02
X 3.30 ▼ -0.03
2 3.30 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .